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I've talked quite a bit in these pages about the extent to which 2019 has been a year defined by an epochal central bank pivot, which has reinvigorated the global hunt for yield to the benefit of risk assets. There was a time not so long ago (perhaps five years ago) when the vast majority o...
There's a big difference between volatility and risk. Volatility is the magnitude of short-term price changes. Risk is the potential of permanently losing money. "Uncertainty is not the same as risk. Indeed, when great uncertainty drives securities prices to especially low levels, they...
In 1963, James Tobin said : "Markets do not provide, at any price, a riskless way of accumulating purchasing power for the future." Fortunately, for investors in 2019, we can buy Treasury inflation-protected securities. I rarely see TIPS in prospective client portfolios and the next f...
The Fed is in the blackout window ahead of the July FOMC, and mercifully so. As we saw on Thursday , the market is exceptionally sensitive to communications around the likely scope of the forthcoming rate cut (i.e., "Will it be 25 bp or 50?"). John Williams's fumbled effort to extoll the vi...
Is The Economy Still Slowing? With the S&P 500 ( S P500) pressing new all-time highs, you are probably asking yourself whether the economic cycle is still slowing. Although we all know that the stock market is not the economy, it is logical to link the two and question the direction of e...
What a time to be alive and trading. On Thursday, market participants were treated to what's been variously described as an "unprecedented event", when New York Fed President John Williams presented a speech called "Living Life Near the ZLB" only to come back hours later and "clarify" that i...
A new 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security - CUSIP 9128287D6 - auctioned today with a real yield to maturity of 0.282%, the lowest yield for any auction of this term since September 2016. This new TIPS got an auction-generated coupon rate of 0.250%, down a stunning 62 basis points...
The BCI at 255.2 is up from last week's downward revised 254.7, and remains below the previous high of this business cycle indicated by the BCIp of 78.4. However, the 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 9.8 is below last week’s 10.2. Both BCIp and BCIg are not signaling a recessi...
The data is improving and that should be a good thing. I've variously argued (both on this platform and on my site) that the most important takeaway from last week was also the simplest. US equities hit new highs even has bond yields rose. Here's a simple chart I used in my traditional Su...
The market is now at record highs, and unemployment is way down. Even so, a U.S. rate cut is expected as early as this week. During his congressional testimony last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell raised concerns over slower global growth and trade tensions, which in turn have con...
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2024-03-06 22:46:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-02-14 15:12:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-01-13 12:28:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...