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2023-09-11 20:25:00 ET Summary Resilient consumer spending has been a pillar of the US economy. While activity may soften, we think the consumer will help the coming slowdown stay mild. Household expenditures account for more than two-thirds of US gross domestic product, making co...
2023-09-06 23:30:00 ET Summary The primary reason why sentiment might be low is because sentiment tends to lag. If you review past recessions sentiment will always decline during a recession. Real wages tricked us on the upside, then depressed us on the downside. Real wages su...
2023-09-02 00:25:00 ET Summary Manufacturers' New Orders for Durable Goods and the PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) for manufacturers were reported last week. The rule of thumb which has been repeated many times is that when the PMI falls below 50, it forecasts recessions. The...
2023-08-30 14:09:00 ET Summary Some consumer discretionary stocks have performed better than others. Luxury, homebuilding, and travel have been a bright spots. Discounters may begin to do better as consumers seek deals. With a potential recession ahead, what's the ou...
2023-08-30 02:20:00 ET Summary Retailers are preparing for Halloween sales earlier than ever, in part due to concerns about a downturn in consumer spending. At least two large retailers have had Halloween merchandise available since July. We see clear signs of premeditated dec...
2023-08-24 03:00:00 ET Summary It might be time for investors to focus less on what consumers want and more on what they need. Consumer discretionary stocks have trounced consumer staples thus far in 2023. In our view, that tide looks ready to turn. Overweighting consumer disc...
2023-08-23 21:05:00 ET Summary A rising Yield Curve is what we are seeing today. The turn higher began after hitting what appears to be the low point,-1.89%, on May 4, 2023. Consensus opinion is that investing is all about calling the bottom in the S&P 500 or some other asset ...
2023-08-23 12:15:00 ET Summary Trucking Tonnage Index, a relatively volatile economic indicator, remains in a rising trend. Parking lots at malls are as full during the week as they are on the weekends. Perhaps weekends are more packed, but it doesn’t seem by much. Real...
2023-08-22 12:15:00 ET Summary Adjusted for inflation, Real Retail Sales and Real Personal Income reflect economic activity that is rising more than the impact of inflation. Demand for goods and services is responsible for many corporations raising guidance and expanding facilitie...
2023-08-22 05:30:00 ET Summary Chairman Powell keeps reassuring us that the Fed is "data-dependent," but what do they do if some data is unclear or even flawed? There is a conflict between the ADP jobs data and the Labor Department's "seasonally adjusted" jobs data. In recent mont...
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2024-04-23 19:16:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-13 21:00:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-02-22 16:40:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...