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Summary An all-time low in interest rates was reached when the Fed cut the fed funds rate to approximately zero in late 2008 in an effort to pull the economy out of the GFC. The Fed deemed the inflation “transitory,” it continued its policies of low-interest rates and quan...
Summary 1 or more years of additional interest-rate duration in ‘23 vs. ‘22, to be grown over time: As central banks slow, or pause, their tightening cycles, in sympathy with slowing economic growth and inflation. 6% to 6.5% of portfolio carry potential (including anticipa...
Summary The credit cycle and the economic cycle are excellent leading indicators of volatility. Both are likely to continue deteriorating in the months ahead. As such, expect high stock market volatility to be a mainstay for 2023. High Volatility Set To Continue Eq...
Summary Inflation continues to moderate, not only here, but also in Europe. Despite the negative economic reports and the reaction to the Fed rate hike, the US Dollar barely budged for the week. Value yet again outperformed Growth in the last week, this time by a spread of almost 1%...
Summary Amid the crosscurrents, two themes have prevailed during the post-pandemic years, which lend some perspective to the macroeconomic roadmap ahead: namely, the bipolar swings in macro policy and the forces of economic normalization. After one of the worst years for fixed income as...
Summary Today, the yield curve is more inverted than at any time since the early 1980s, so many are saying that means the chances of a recession are pretty high. Yes, today the curve is very inverted, but real yields are not particularly high. Low spreads suggest the market is relat...
Summary With yield levels surging across the asset class spectrum, one could conclude that a semblance of ‘normalcy’ has returned to the fixed income arena. As we are about to embark on a new calendar year, the fixed income landscape has changed dramatically. From an i...
Summary U.S. investment grade and high yield spreads have been very resilient this year. We do not expect dramatic spread widening unless or until we actually see underlying credit conditions deteriorate. When we consider the paths that the Fed can take, we want to continue to...
Summary We believe that various fixed income asset classes are more attractive now and can serve as yield enhancers or portfolio diversifiers, or both, in a variety of market environments. Using broad high yield as an example, at current levels the overall yield would need to incr...
Summary Almost half of the option contracts being traded on the S&P 500, to the tune of $300 billion of notional each day, have one-day expiries or less. Across all listed ETFs and indices, an astounding $1 trillion of notional value in put options (bets that an index or ETF w...
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2024-06-13 23:10:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-02 07:18:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-04 00:44:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...