Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes - June 3, 2025
Source: SeekingAlpha
2025-06-03 09:20:00 ET
Summary
- GMI's long-run expected total return rose to 7.2% annualized in May, slightly below its 10-year realized performance of 7.5%.
- US equities have a weaker outlook versus their strong past decade, making global diversification more attractive for future returns.
- GMI serves as a robust benchmark for passive investing, often outperforming active strategies after adjusting for risk, costs, and taxes.
- Forecasts are based on three models—Building Block, Equilibrium, and Adjusted—averaged to improve reliability, but customization to investor needs is recommended.
The long-run expected total return for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked higher again in May, edging up to an annualized 7.2% from the 7.0% estimate in the previous month. Today’s estimate is slightly below GMI’s realized 10-year performance. The forecast is calculated as the average of three models (defined below) for GMI, an unmanaged global benchmark that’s based on a market-value weighted mix of the major asset classes (excluding cash)....
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Total Return Forecasts: Major Asset Classes - June 3, 2025
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