PostNL: A Hold At Best (Rating Upgrade)

2025-03-14 03:52:38 ET

Summary

• PostNL missed its profit guidance significantly, with revenues growing but profits and free cash flow declining due to logistical challenges and higher costs.
• The company faces ongoing risks from declining mail demand and regulatory constraints, with opportunities mainly in the parcel segment.
• PostNL's 2025 outlook remains bleak, with expected EBIT in line with 2024 and continued pressure from mail volume declines and cost increases.
• Despite a 31% upside due to a lower share price, I am only upgrading the stock from sell to hold.

In October 2024, I covered PostNL ( TNTFF , PSTNY ) with a sell rating. The listing in Amsterdam ( ticker PNL ) has last 20% since then validating my sell rating. As I discuss in this report, PostNL missed its guidance by a wide margin. I don’t believe, this does not make the stock any more attractive at lower prices. However, I will be updating my stock price target assessment to detect whether there is any value at current prices....

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