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Summary The ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard is a group of 12 variables that have historically foreshadowed an upcoming recession. The Fed does not want to repeat the mistakes of not only the soft-landing scenario of 1966, but also the start-stop dynamic that was endured durin...
Summary The core CPI in September came in stronger than consensus expectations across consumer spending categories that tend to be “stickier,” including shelter and healthcare. The primary driver of inflation again in September was shelter. Goods price inflation ...
Summary Every movement of the stock market has been predicated on what the Fed had to say. The most important chart is the high yield credit spread. When credit markets freeze, policy makers bend. For the past six weeks every movement of the stock market has been pre...
Summary AIER’s Everyday Price fell 0.4% in September following a 1.3% drop in August and 0.6% decline in July. The Consumer Price Index, excluding food and energy, rose 0.4% for the month (not seasonally adjusted), while the 12-month change came in at 6.6%, the highest sinc...
Summary Last week’s jobless claims number went unrevised whereas the latest week’s data rose by 9K up to 228K. On a national level, claims are moving higher, but it is perhaps too early to say we are in a new trend. While 80% of states and territories saw claims ...
Summary CPI reading came in ahead of expectations. Core CPI hit a new cycle high, which is pretty devastating for the "transitory" narrative. The Fed will have to continue to hike rates, putting pressure on broad equity markets, and especially on long-duration assets such as t...
Summary We summarize key data and provide in-depth analysis of the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). All Items and Core CPI inflation both grew at significantly higher rates than expected. This month’s CPI i...
Summary The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at 8.20%, down from 8.26% the previous month. Investing.com was looking for a 0.4% MoM change in seasonally adjusted Headline CPI and a 0.5% in Core CPI. In the wake of the Great Recession, two percent has...
Summary CPI came in hot, again. The market - so far - anticipates a still more hawkish Fed. We think a 75bps rate rise remains the likely outcome. And we think it's becoming obvious - surely even to the Fed itself - that rate rises and inflation don't have the linkage that...
Summary Among the more notable twists of this year’s raucous third quarter was the upending of the long-running underperformance of the US Growth indexes versus their Value counterparts. This recent Growth/Value tug of war has coincided with the big shifts in inflation and ...
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The Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of Simplify Exchange Traded Funds (the “Trust”) has determined that it is in the best interests of shareholders to liquidate the Simplify Nasdaq 100 PLUS Downside Convexity ETF (QQD) and Simplify Nasdaq 100 PLUS Convexity ETF (QQC) a...
Simplify Asset Management Inc. ("Simplify"), an innovative provider of Exchange Traded Funds ("ETFs"), announced today that it expects to deliver capital gains distributions across 6 Simplify ETFs. * For the funds listed in the table below, the ex-date for the 2022 capital gains distribut...
Simplify Asset Management Inc. ("Simplify"), an innovative provider of Exchange Traded Funds ("ETFs"), announced today that it expects to deliver capital gains distributions across 3 Simplify ETFs.* For the funds listed in Table 1, the ex-date for the 2021 capital gains distribution...