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Summary With the midterm elections behind us, does the market outlook improve given a now gridlocked Congress? Over a more extended 24-month period, stocks returned an average of 33.7% after a midterm election. While history certainly supports the bullish outlook, it should no...
Summary The CPI readings announced last week were not as high as many expected, and market participants treated the less bad news as good news. Market pivots tend to be infrequent, and partially reversed quickly. They can have limited long-term predictive value but can be an early...
Summary We had good news on the inflation front this week. Inflation is most likely peaking here for the time being. Helping the idea of a Federal Reserve pivot to lower rates will soon be unemployment readings. Those readings will begin to worsen, clearly showing the economic sli...
Summary The latest result is the fifth consecutive month below the neutral 50 threshold. In the October update, the AIER Leading Indicators Index remained at 25. The Consumer Confidence Index from The Conference Board fell in October following two consecutive monthly gains. ...
Summary The November Preliminary Report came in at 54.7, down 5.2 from the October Final. To put today's report into the larger historical context since its beginning in 1978, consumer sentiment is 36 percent below the average reading (arithmetic mean) and 35.2 percent below the g...
Summary The October Consumer Price Index rose by 0.4%, while the core rate (removing the volatile food and energy components) increased by 0.3%. The monthly increases - and the resulting trend rates - were less than financial markets expected. The annualized pace of growth for...
Summary Surging stocks show markets believe hopes of a soft landing by the Fed to be true. We disagree and stay underweight developed market (DM) stocks. U.S. stocks jumped and bond yields plunged after October CPI rose less than the market expected. But sticky core inflation keep...
Summary Consumer spending is a short leading indicator for employment. Together, spending and employment are two important coincident indicators of imminent recession. Several of the high-frequency indicators of consumer spending and employment have deteriorated sharply since ...
Summary In our polarized world, your politics can be hazardous to your performance. Many political claims seem to make sense but do not hold water. The economy, energy policy and inflation may be the poster children of this campaign. Market reaction going into (and coming ...
Summary The average spread between the 10-year Treasury and the 30-year mortgage rate has averaged 1.7% since 1990 and now stands at 2.9%. Small and mid-cap stocks continue to look better technically than US large cap. The Russell 2000, S&P 600 and S&P 400 (midcap) index E...
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The Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of Simplify Exchange Traded Funds (the “Trust”) has determined that it is in the best interests of shareholders to liquidate the Simplify Nasdaq 100 PLUS Downside Convexity ETF (QQD) and Simplify Nasdaq 100 PLUS Convexity ETF (QQC) a...
Simplify Asset Management Inc. ("Simplify"), an innovative provider of Exchange Traded Funds ("ETFs"), announced today that it expects to deliver capital gains distributions across 6 Simplify ETFs. * For the funds listed in the table below, the ex-date for the 2022 capital gains distribut...
Simplify Asset Management Inc. ("Simplify"), an innovative provider of Exchange Traded Funds ("ETFs"), announced today that it expects to deliver capital gains distributions across 3 Simplify ETFs.* For the funds listed in Table 1, the ex-date for the 2021 capital gains distribution...