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2023-06-13 09:52:00 ET Summary The latest update to the Recession Probability Track shows how it has progressed deeper into a higher probability of recession since our last update a little over six weeks ago. If the Fed follows through on pausing the series of rate hikes it began ...
2023-06-12 19:20:00 ET Summary The S&P 500 is up 11% YTD; the Nasdaq nearly 33%; and the TSX is +2.5%. The year-to-date market-weighted S&P 500 gain versus an equal-weighted basket is the most extreme since at least 1990. At the March 2000 cycle peak, tech accounted fo...
2023-06-12 14:45:00 ET Summary Nasdaq extended its streak of weekly gains to seven, the longest since November 2019. There have been seven periods of at least seven-week rallies since the Financial Crisis lows in May 2019. The average ‘max drawdown’ over any thre...
2023-06-09 04:33:35 ET Summary The 2023 stock market rally is driven by AI speculation and Big Tech giants, with the MAAMG group (Meta, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Google) reaching a combined valuation of approximately $10 trillion. Citigroup's lead strategist Dirk Willer and th...
2023-06-08 05:30:00 ET Summary Inflation in the United States continues to cool, falling in April 2023 to its lowest level in two years. The long period of sustained low inflation was enabled by globalization, the Internet age, and demographics. U.S. economy is absorbing and r...
2023-06-07 11:40:00 ET Summary Data suggests the US economy is certainly slowing down, but it does not tell us a recession is definitely underway. Recent data has shown a cooling of China’s economic growth, but I believe it’s temporary, and also lopsided. The eur...
2023-06-07 04:00:00 ET Summary We don’t see a high probability of a boom or a bust so long as the Federal Reserve is fighting inflation aggressively. The economy and corporate profits are holding up better than expected. The financial markets aren’t the economy a...
2023-06-07 03:22:56 ET Summary Infrastructure’s focus on cash flows and underlying earnings makes it a prudent investment as economic conditions deteriorate and a recession looms. Dividends from infrastructure assets, unlike most fixed income, act as an inflation hedge due ...
2023-06-07 02:10:00 ET Summary The run higher in the Nasdaq has become insane. It’s an “echo bubble” from the bubble that popped in November 2021. All of the classic “blow off top” indicators are flashing again. The VIX is back to where it was in...
2023-06-06 18:30:00 ET Summary Why employment data is helping to push back the recession scenario. Strong jobs market means rates may not be coming down anytime soon. Why interest rate cuts may not happen until 2024 now. The latest U.S. jobs data showed emplo...
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2024-06-02 12:58:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-24 02:34:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-25 05:32:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...