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Summary Looking at the most recent readings of many economic indicators, nowcasting gives a more up-to-date reading of the economy than gross domestic product. The weakest US sector is housing. Building permits have been on a downward trend for much of 2022 and dropped again in December...
Summary Absent greater clarity around inflation and the Fed’s moves to combat it, we do think stock prices can fall further and that market bounces such as those seen in Q4 2022 are more likely a bear market rally rather than the start of a new bull trend. A continued decline in ...
Summary On November 9, 2021, I launched the ETF Reliable Retirement Portfolio. Working from various 2022 investment outlooks as well as other research material, I constructed a 16-ETF portfolio that seeks to balance diversity, growth, and current income. In this update, I report on ...
Summary S&P 500 EPS growth for Q4 is set to come in at -3.9%, the lowest rate in over 2 years, but an improvement from last week. Despite headwinds, an early reading of corporate uncertainty seems to indicate that companies are actually the least anxious they’ve been in 5 yea...
Summary The US stock market has stabilized recently and trades moderately above its recent low. The current S&P 500 drawdown remains relatively steep. Finally, market valuation continues to pull back from its recent peak but has rebounded a bit lately, based on Shiller’s ...
Summary At 429 basis points, the spread of the major junk bond index to Treasuries is dangerously close to the “inside 400” level, which is where it spends most of its time in a booming economy. I would not call the U.S. economy “booming,” as there has been a...
Summary The S&P 500 closed the week of January 13, 2023, above the 200-day moving average, for the first time since late November-early December ’22. The key benchmark is also testing the downward-sloping trendline that started in January ’22 with the all-time-high in ...
Summary Stocks have rallied to start the year due to financial conditions easing. The Fed, to this point, has been unable to convince the markets of its commitment to raise rates. Vice-Chair Lael Brainard speaks this week and could be personified to reset market expectations. ...
Summary Markets may be underestimating the stickiness of inflation and central banks’ determination to beat it - and what that means for growth and corporate earnings potential. We favor fixed income and credit over equities, and investment grade over high yield. Should infla...
Summary The CPI cooled again in December driven by a massive fall in Energy prices. A big driver behind the fall in Energy prices has been the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Lower inflation is “good for gold” as the Fed can theoretically pull back on hikes. ...
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2024-05-16 13:42:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-06 20:36:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-27 03:38:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...