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Summary From its all-time high of 4,973, the S&P 500 has now fallen 23% (as at January 1st), so the US large-cap index is still in a bear market. Over the last 100 years, the S&P 500’s CAPE has almost never gone outside the range of half to double its long-term average. ...
Summary After having collapsed in November 2022, U.S. imports of goods produced in China shrank again in December 2022. Trailing-twelve month average combined value of goods traded between the U.S. and China was below a counterfactual trajectory based on the recovery of trade between th...
Summary The US trade surplus in services dipped further in 2022, from the already beaten down levels of 2021, to $244 billion, the lowest since 2012, and the fourth year in a row of declines. Imports of goods spiked by $425 billion, or by 15%, to $3.28 trillion. Exports of goods jum...
Summary The Cleveland Fed forecasts inflation to start plateauing in January and February. The Fed will have to be more aggressive and hike above the currently expected 5.1%. Long-term nominal interest rates expected to rise, and the bear market in TLT expected to continue. ...
Summary This month, the Bureau of Labor announced significant revisions and is why tracking the trend is more valuable for economic insight than any single report. The tone in the media is shifting from extreme pessimism to “my god, it’s far better than we thought”....
Summary One of the key assumptions behind commodity markets is that it is economic demand that drives pricing. It has been long-conflated that sentiment drives economic activity and that certain correlated indicators are believed to be economic measures and good predictors of future eco...
Summary So far in 2023, value-indiscriminate buyers are still pounding into the riskiest low-yielding assets with wild abandon. Fat yield spreads above risk-free rates are also known as an attractive reward for capital risk. Since 1920, this month, BBB bonds are yielding about 100 b...
Summary S&P 500 blended EPS growth for Q4 continues to fall, now expected to come in at -5.3%. Peak earnings season rolls on this week with 1,447 global companies expected to report. Potential surprises this week: PYPL, HLT. Another week, another tick down for Q4 S&...
Summary The trajectory of the S&P 500 shifted downward to close the week at 4,136.48, still up from the previous week's close. The week also saw continued improvement in the expectations for the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share during 2023. The FedWatch tool anticipat...
Summary Why investors may be missing the big picture in the markets. Equity markets are facing volatility, but opportunities remain. Markets are off to a strong start, but that may fade soon. Equity markets are off to a strong start this year, but those gains are b...
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2024-05-16 13:42:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-06 20:36:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-27 03:38:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...