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2024-06-26 02:20:00 ET Summary Growth peaked on a quarter over quarter seasonally adjusted annual rate in Q3 last year at 4.9%. One area of uncertainty is the spend rate for the IRA and CHIPs Act. While we believe the current administration will keep spending high through the elec...
2024-06-25 15:00:00 ET Summary The economy clearly has slowed since the fourth quarter of 2023. Real GDP growth was only 1.3% in the first quarter of 2024, down from 3.4% in Q4 2023. Despite the slowing economy and lack of signs of a recession, the inflation story has clearly turn...
2024-06-25 14:50:00 ET Summary The US 10-2yr Treasury yield curve has been inverted (two-year yields higher than ten-year) for 23 months since July 2022. An inversion in this spread has preceded the onset of every recession in the last 50 years by an average of 10 months. Mark...
2024-06-25 02:40:00 ET Summary The big news last week was that the Commerce Department reported that retail sales rose by only 0.1% in May, below the analysts’ consensus estimate of 0.3%. Like the G7 conference in Italy, the recent Ukrainian peace conference in Switzerland ...
2024-06-19 08:45:00 ET Summary AI may have important implications for other markets, notably fixed income, via the level of interest rates and bond yields. Turing to the impact of AI on productivity growth and yields, the overall effect on the labour market depends on whether the ...
2024-06-19 07:45:00 ET Summary What happens to markets if the Fed doesn't cut this year? Market outlook if Fed becomes more cautious. Risk management and the markets. Markets have been pushing to new highs amid signs that U.S. inflation is moving in the right...
2024-06-18 13:25:00 ET Summary US retail sales were softer than hoped in May and with April revised to show a contraction, we are seeing more evidence of a cooling consumer spending story. With inflation pressures seemingly moderating and unemployment ticking higher, a September F...
2024-06-18 08:45:00 ET Summary The Fed did not lower its inflation forecast based on the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index, and it raised its unemployment forecast to 4.1%. The Fed cannot fight market rates, so if Treasury yields go lower, the Fed may be forced to cut r...
2024-06-18 07:25:00 ET Summary There’s broad agreement among portfolio managers that a concentrated group of AI winners will drive returns over a short-term tactical horizon. U.S. stocks hit record highs and bond yields fell after the May CPI came in below expectations. The...
2024-06-17 22:10:00 ET Summary Elections for the EU parliament are sending shock waves throughout financial markets in Europe. This expectation of a French veto of Monsieur Macron’s party is causing investors to buy German bunds and sell French government bonds, causing an ...
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2024-07-24 06:36:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-03 23:52:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-02-12 08:24:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...