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Near-record supply chain disruption has led to fastest rise in global input prices since August 2008. Higher costs were passed through to clients at sharpest pace for over a decade in March. Shipping delays, elevated transport costs and higher commodity prices likely to feed throu...
Concerns of a rising U.S. dollar may pose a hindrance to initiating commodity exposure from outside the U.S. The launch of new non-U.S.-dollar-denominated S&P GSCI Single Commodities Indices could help commodity exposure seekers gain access while alleviating the external currency ...
Current economic data is certainly strong - although not universally so - but the bond and currency markets may be pointing to some weakness ahead. The copper to gold ratio which peaked in early March, leading bond yields by a full month, has recently resumed its uptrend. The comm...
Stocks were up but the bigger winners were commodities and real estate. With the dollar down foreign markets also performed pretty well with Europe continuing to outperform. Growth beat value again last week but still lags significantly YTD. Large cap stocks also had another good week...
As the global economy recovers, inflationary pressures are building, and price increases are moving downstream. Our Materials Price Index (MPI) has surged 40% since mid-November 2020, reaching its highest level since early 2014. World real GDP is projected to advance 5.1% in 2021 ...
The first quarter of 2021 brought what the Asset Allocation Committee expected, and as it looks to the next six to 12 months, it faces two questions. Do we think the economy will overheat, pushing bond yields to levels that unsettle equity markets or even force central banks to stifle...
The economic restart has lifted commodity prices. Beyond that, we see structural trends leading to a divergence of fortunes in different commodities. The International Monetary Fund has raised its global growth forecast to 6% in 2021. U.S. stocks hit record highs and yields traded bel...
As of early April, Bloomberg Commodity Index is up 33% over a year earlier. During that same time period, lumber has rallied 280%, with copper and corn rallying 100% and 80%, respectively. Inflation fears and a belief in post-pandemic economic recovery could be signaling the early day...
The PPI report last week didn't make a ripple in the markets, but the commentariat was all aTwitter about inflation and economic overheating and whether Powell might raise in rates in 2 years or 3. The market was not impressed. The 10-year Treasury yield moved all of about 1 basis poi...
The buyers are mostly high creditworthy wealthy people. There hasn't been a big building boom. In fact, supply is tight. Passive investors would rather let corporations be corporations and take whatever return they generate along the way. A lot of the current narratives about infl...