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Inflation and its implications for real economic growth are the main portfolio positioning consideration of the conflict in Ukraine. On the 8th of March, the U.S. sanctioned Russian energy imports, giving companies 45 days to comply. Higher commodity prices are not the only factor...
Oil markets are responding to crisis as they do, with volatility. Other commodities follow this type of market reaction. U.S. citizens will be further disadvantaged as U.S. producers have less incentive to produce here. This is why the majors largely left U.S. fields for global ones p...
The yield curve has flattened considerably and the spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yield is currently just 25 basis points. Many of the large, popular stocks are still grossly overvalued in my opinion. Value stocks continue to outperform. For further details s...
November Non-OPEC production increased by 410 kb/d to 49,870 kb/d. Of the 410 kb/d increase, the biggest increase came from the US with 244 kb/d along with a number of smaller increases. The Ukrainian crisis caused the price of WTI to increase from $95.72/b on Feb 28 to a recent high ...
The U.S. Fed's pivot away from the view that inflation is “transitory” signaled the beginning of the end for the ultra-low rate environment we have come to think of as normal. Past inflationary cycles rarely end well for financial markets. Such ramifications are stil...
Oil spikes have historically negatively impacted economic outcomes. Oil spikes typically are short-lived due to some exogenous geopolitical event. While higher oil prices certainly benefit oil companies by making the extraction process more profitable, there is also a negative impact ...
U.S. consumer price index jumps 7.9% in February. ECB announces earlier end to quantitative-easing program. Oil prices surge as Russia-Ukraine war roils energy markets. For further details see: Energy Prices Soar Amid Russian Invasion Of Ukraine
Agricultural commodities have seen an unprecedented surge in prices since the war in Ukraine broke out. Oil prices and, particularly in Europe, the natural gas price, impact energy costs. Current events are driving commodity prices. For further details see: Could Oil Pri...
Oil prices have been extremely volatile, but it's more important than ever to focus on the fundamentals. Prior to the Russia/Ukraine war, oil market balance for Q1 2022 was headed for -2 million b/d versus consensus of +0.6 million b/d. This is largely on the back of OECD oil dema...
President Biden implemented a ban on crude oil imports from Russia, which caused crude to hit 130.50. Nickel has gone through the roof as a consequence of supply issues related to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Green energy and other possible energy sources cannot, at this point...