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We believe that the Cybersecurity theme can help manage geopolitical risk in a portfolio, as well as idiosyncratic risk linked to companies’ product and supply chain weaknesses. We expect equity markets to be supported by negative real yields as high inflation persists. The...
What really intrigues us right now is the relationship between the prices of corn and gasoline and what it could be telling us about the future. Most automobile gasoline sold in the US is a 10% ethanol mix. This means a lot of corn is mixed into gasoline. It’s part of the reaso...
The cumulative crude plus condensate (C+C) output for the scenarios from January 2021 to December 2050 is 112 Gb, 140 Gb, and 200 Gb for the low oil price, reference, and high oil price cases, respectively. Based on current oil prices, the high oil price case might be more reasonable,...
The 60/40 has become the gold standard of portfolios, so you’d think that there’s very strong empirical support for this specific allocation. When we look at the historical data, the exact opposite portfolio (a 40/60) has been the optimal risk-adjusted return portfolio. ...
US crude storage failed to build in Q1. The implied balance is -0.44 million b/d for US crude storage with SPR. If this trend continues, US crude storage with SPR is going to ~800 million bbls. What does this mean? It means oil prices are going higher. How high will oil prices...
Russia conflict further straining oil supply. Could an EU embargo on Russian oil push oil price near $200? How high could oil prices go this year? For further details see: No Signs Of Slowing Demand As Ukraine Conflict Pushes Oil Higher
We are experiencing an environment with a sharply higher probability of large, abrupt price moves related to event risk. Volatility typically reflects a simple measurement of the average of the ups and downs. The standard deviation is an average of ups and downs, and unfortunately...
February reports recapped the past year for global power and renewables and offered a look ahead for several regional power markets, in addition to a long-term market outlook for global power and renewables. Meanwhile, amid the economic instabilities and challenges of 2021, clean ener...
Inflationary pressures were sustained in February, with the number of manufacturing firms worldwide reporting higher prices for raw materials nearly 4.5 times higher than normal. Comparisons of benchmark pricing data against Price Pressure Indicators derived from Manufacturing PMI sur...
Russia's invasion of Ukraine on 24 February has fundamentally changed the geopolitical landscape - with economic consequences. While the 2022 global growth rate represents a slowdown from 5.8% in 2021, the world economy has sufficient resilience to avert a recession. While Russia ...