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A large difference between the pandemic and the war in Ukraine is that supply chains are no longer “only” disrupted but they could be destroyed for good. The European Commission has already announced plans to reduce its energy dependence on Russia. once the required ...
Even before the war began, supply chain frictions had only improved marginally from the Covid-19 pandemic. Now, expect even longer-lasting disruptions, a new round of delays, and protracted supply shortages. No economic sector can escape the surge in energy prices. For furth...
Follow the Money is a series of brief, information-rich posts that I will publish periodically but not on a fixed schedule. After rallying for 9 of the last 11 days, the S&P 500 went from down -13% to down just -3.4%. Growth has been hit hard by the slide in tech stocks this y...
The West is responding to Russia's invasion of Ukraine by weaning itself off Russian energy. Europe will have an acute need for more fossil fuels from outside Russia to meet its energy demands and achieve its ambitious plans to reduce its reliance on Russia. By spurring the transi...
The Western world stands aghast at the suffering of the Ukrainian people. The global economic consequences of the conflict could also be severe, because Russia and Ukraine are major exporters of vital commodities. The US and UK have announced oil embargos, with the US ban immediately ...
A confluence of negative factors set U.S. stocks up for a difficult start to 2022. However, we see both a short- and longer-term opportunity taking shape. Intraday market volatility has been dramatic and stock selling has become indiscriminate, as is often the case in big market swing...
Commodities exposure, designed carefully, can provide effective inflation defense and portfolio diversification. After nearly a decade of struggles and underinvestment, the supportive infrastructure and supply for many commodities have become strained. Commodities don’t all...
As of early 2022, four Russian oil companies were present in different onshore and offshore locations in several African markets. Overall, Russian players tend to act as operators in North Africa (Libya, Algeria, Tunisia), while they mainly act as partners in Sub-Saharan Africa (Ghana...
Russia’s attack on Ukraine will have lasting and negative effects on the world economy. Within Russia, businesses selling to the domestic market will see foreign sources of products and services as unreliable, leading to local sourcing at higher costs and a lower variety of ava...
Natural gas prices have been on a steady uptrend this year and likely headed higher by this summer. Europe's natural gas situation is likely to worsen before it gets better. If Russia continues to restrain exports, storage by the end of injection will be at record lows. US gas wil...