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Due to the war in Ukraine and the resulting sanctions and embargoes - on top of the already interrupted supply chain, plus a new COVID outbreak in China - global trade is grinding down to a slow-motion “holding” action. As a result of these disruptions, PMIs all over the...
Jimmy Xu: Volatility has been more pronounced in fixed income than equities in 2022. Xu: Volatility is uneven across different asset classes. Xu: We have been creating diversification through the use of options, especially in the equity space. For further details see: Wh...
I revisit my previous thesis to see where oil is headed from here. Although I'm still very long-term bullish on oil, I see many headwinds over the next 18 months. Low multiple E&P equities are the best way to play this. For further details see: Recession Looming: Oil...
The broader equity categories turned in negative results in Q1. U.S. large-cap stocks, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, held up the best at a decline of 4.6%. Bonds performed worse than many of the equity categories, despite typically being viewed as a safe haven investment. In t...
Does the yield curve inversion cause a recession or does it just provide a signal? Is the inversion only about expected future monetary policy? Do other factors also influence the shape of the curve, and if so, can we disentangle the various factors? There is a lot that we don’...
The December 2021 output of 49,628 kb/d is 2,566 kb/d lower than the March pre-covid rate of 52,194 kb/d. The constraints put on Canada’s export capacity by the cancellation of Keystone XL were mitigated by the start up of Line 3. The EIA reported that Russian output decrea...
In this second part, we will take a deep dive into the drivers behind the move in long-dated oil prices and why we think this is just the beginning of a multi-year repricing of the entire forward curve. In a nutshell, after the oil crash in early 2020 on the back of the first global C...
The FOMC’s latest rate hike cycle has begun, following the March 15-16 meeting in which the Federal Reserve hiked rates 25 basis points (bps). In the week after the announcement of the rate hike (through March 25), WTI front-month crude oil prices at CME Group rose almost 20%. ...
Last year’s headlines (COVID-19 and China) have been replaced with new concerns (Invasions and Inflation). Central bankers are pivoting from stabilizing growth to limiting inflation. Traditional bond and equity markets have come under pressure as they adjust to this new regime....
The UK government's Energy Security strategy offers new details on offshore wind and nuclear generation plans. But while the strategy is a necessary step forward in the UK's net-zero journey, it still leaves the UK reliant on natural gas in the meantime. This means Britain is vuln...