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Recession fears and an accelerated Federal Reserve interest rate hiking trajectory weighed on markets during the second quarter, resulting in the weakest first half performance since 1970. The short end of the yield curve increased dramatically during Q2, with policy interest rates st...
Commodities prices have spiked as demand from the restart clashed with tightening supply. We see the war and net-zero transition keeping prices high. U.S. and euro area inflation data last week showed still-persistent inflation. Stocks and bond yields fell as markets priced more risk ...
What is a "Ponzi"? What just happened? A contrarian view of the first half of 2022. It’s the 1970s all over again, or is it? A view from someone who lived every day of it as an investment professional. Investors continue to stare into the rear-view mirror. "Recency ...
Over the past five years, total supply has fallen from 119 units in early 2017 to 95 in June 2022. Marketed supply fell from 96 units to 80 at present. So far, contractors have been restrained in reactivating cold-stacked drillships, leading to an increase in contracted utilisation as...
Once the COVID distortions are over the economy will return to its previous state of roughly 2% growth and 2% inflation. Real sales of durable goods surged throughout COVID but accelerated rapidly with stimulus payments; sales peaked right as Biden’s American Rescue Act was imp...
Oil equities have fallen sharply because of recession fears; spot oil prices remain very high, but the market likely expects demand and prices to crash soon too. The last recession indeed destroyed significant demand, but it was unique; most recessions have had a more modest impact an...
The EIA has reported that their site experienced technical problems last week and that they have not been able to update their weekly and monthly data. Since we do not know when they will publish the April U.S. oil production report, this short different post will fill the gap. Fr...
Why an economic downturn may not weigh on oil prices for long. Oil has a long-term inventory issue, and only falling demand will help bring down prices. Why oil prices could climb to $130 a barrel or higher in coming quarters. Oil prices have remained at higher l...
Is ESG investing to blame for higher oil prices? It's far more complicated than that. Why energy security is causing investors to pivot their ESG investing strategies. What rising oil prices mean for the great energy transition. Russia’s invasion of Ukrain...
Roughly two weeks ago, AAA's national average price for a gallon of regular gasoline peaked just above $5. Taking one step further up the supply chain, Gasoline futures peaked even further ago on June 9th and have fallen 14.5% since then. While both the national average and gasoli...