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This quarter we discuss implications for munis from investment-market declines, inflation, and a potential recession. A recession that necessitates cost cutting could see muni managers choosing between social programs or annual payments into a pension fund and raising taxes and other ...
As we enter the second half of 2022, predictions of a possible recession range widely as the key drivers of inflation shift from goods to commodities and services, notably housing. For bond investors, the sharp rise in the rate landscape has had an outsize impact across the board, wit...
Municipals bucked their seasonal trend and posted negative total returns in June. Favorable supply dynamics were outweighed by robust outflows. Despite attractive valuations, near-term performance will likely be driven by interest rates. By Peter Hayes, James Schwartz, &am...
Historically, a spike in municipal bond yields has been followed by a period of strong performance, regardless of interest rate policy. Rising rates resulting in widening yield spreads have been short-lived. Despite the prospect of additional Fed action to push short rates higher,...
The Fed is raising rates faster than initially expected, and the US muni market is in the midst of one of the largest outflow cycles ever. Sharp outflow cycles have historically signaled buying opportunities. As the pace of monetary policy tightening has increased, recession probabili...
Municipal bond funds have struggled so far in 2022, witnessing record outflows through the Lipper fund flows week ended Wednesday, June 15, and posting an average year-to-date market loss of 9.98%. Year to date, municipal debt funds handed back a net $72.5 billion, eclipsing the full-...
Market technicals may also be supportive of the arrival of the summer redemption season. Better-than-anticipated revenue collections and the passage of robust stimulus packages have led many analysts to recommend credit risk over interest rate risk so far in the first half of this yea...
The year-over-year change in core CPI peaked in March and is coming down, albeit slower than we’d all like to see. The economy is slowing in some areas and inflation is still high but probably peaking. Bond yields are starting to look pretty attractive relative to stock div...
Municipals posted strong total returns and outperformed comparable U.S. Treasuries in May. Supply-and-demand technicals turned more constructive late in the month. Favorable seasonal dynamics should provide a tailwind into the fall. For further details see: Municipals Sp...
The search for value is on, particularly in short to medium duration. We believe yield translates into return potential, and it’s an opportune time to assess current yields in the context of the durability (or lack thereof) of the Fed’s recently aggressive monetary polic...
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2024-07-14 06:40:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-24 09:48:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-02 18:56:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...