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2024-05-28 10:50:00 ET Summary A broad set of US economic indicators continues to show that the odds are low that an NBER-defined recession has started or is imminent. The macro trend peaked earlier in the year and is slowing, but the current reading for April remains moderately n...
2024-05-24 11:50:00 ET Summary Wall Street economists increasingly believe the risk of recession has fallen sharply. We currently have the longest, consistent period in history where the yield spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and the 3-month Treasury bill is inverted. ...
2024-05-18 16:24:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-10 07:50:00 ET Summary The four-week moving average of initial claims, which the Labor Department also provides, irons out the week-to-week squiggles. We’re looking for sharp increases in weekly claims for unemployment insurance benefits, and we’re looking fo...
2024-05-09 10:40:00 ET Summary There are many ways to monitor recession risk, but any one indicator in isolation is flawed. In the search of early warning signs of trouble, it’s useful to focus on the labor market, which is arguably the key driver of economic strength and w...
2024-05-01 10:20:00 ET Summary The probability the U.S. economy will see a recession begin sometime in the next twelve months has started to fall again during the past six weeks, after having hit a double-top. The Recession Probability Track indicates the probability a recession w...
2024-04-17 08:45:00 ET Summary Economic reflation is becoming the next bullish narrative as equity valuation increases continue to outpace earnings gains, at least according to Goldman Sachs and Tony Pasquariello. Interest rates, gold, and commodity prices have increased in the pa...
2024-04-11 08:50:00 ET Summary Jeff Schulze, Head of Economic and Market Strategy at ClearBridge Investments, discusses the updated ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard, which has seen some progress underneath the surface despite not having any indicator changes. If you look at co...
2024-04-11 06:50:00 ET Summary The jobs market is unlikely to lead to a recession in 2024. Wage growth continues to trend lower, while a spike in unemployment that would trigger a recession appears unlikely from here. In fact, the leading indicators of employment growth sugges...
2024-04-04 14:20:00 ET Summary The broadest measure of economic activity, growth in real GDP, slowed in the fourth quarter. The U-3 unemployment rate has edged higher from last April (3.4 percent) to February (3.9 percent). In a no-landing scenario, the unemployment rate would...
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2024-07-09 05:22:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-09 07:52:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-28 15:32:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...