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Given the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet operations, investors fully believe they have protection from a decline. As is always the case, the investing public believes future earnings will justify higher prices during a melt-up. It just never works out that way. While it is ess...
The race toward the Fed’s taper start deadline took an interesting turn last week. Unless the market’s playbook has been permanently rewritten and higher interest rates are no longer the bane for higher stock prices, the bull market may now be living on borrowed time. ...
New orders for durable goods rose again in August, gaining 1.8 percent, the 15th rise in the last 16 months. Total durable goods orders are up 16.9 percent from a year ago. Durable goods orders continue to be strong, particularly the core capital goods components. For furthe...
So, we recently got the 5-10% pullback I warned about, but investors still seem jittery about the stock market. Just because Fed policy will be less loose in the future does not make it tight. There are still plenty of dollars in the system to drive stock prices substantially high...
The S&P 500 yet again survived a challenge of its key uptrend. The Federal Reserve helped catalyze the rebound from another shallow pullback. However, as an interesting caveat, the S&P 500 broke one key predictable pattern in place since the market collapsed at the beginni...
The only comparable period for this market is from the fourth quarter of 1999 to the third quarter of 2000 - the dot-com bubble, which was another period of speculation fueled by loose monetary policy. Though at the end of the quarter, the S&P 500 was priced to return -0.91%/year ...
It seems clear at this point that GDP estimates have been too high. The similarities seem to be more strongly correlated with the 2018 economic and earnings cycle. If history plays out again, earnings should begin showing signs of weakness, setting up the market for a 2018-like fi...
For much of the time since the Fed first took action to shore up the economy after the pandemic started, the timeline for lifting off the current zero lower bound Fed funds target has been 2023. Now, however, a full half of the FOMC members expect that rates will begin to go up in 202...
Consumers are experiencing inflation at the pump and the grocery store while businesses are feeling pressure from supply chain bottlenecks and rising input costs. For investors, the best thing to do is to try to inoculate the portfolio against those higher inflation readings. The firs...
For weeks now, the Fed has been prepping the market for “taper talk”. Currently, bullish sentiment remains high, global liquidity flows are strong, and stock buybacks are at a record. Once the Fed begins to hike rates or yield curves start to invert, the time to beco...
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2024-07-09 05:22:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-09 07:52:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-28 15:32:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...