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Summary The first employment report of 2023 certainly surprised everybody. Friday morning’s report was the tenth straight better-than-expected report, which is a record and easily surpasses the prior peaks in September 2020 and March 2015. The US economy has added 4.967 milli...
Summary The Federal Reserve continues its quantitative tightening, and it keeps the pliers tight around the monetary facet. The Fed's securities portfolio continues to decline. The M2 money stock has now been in decline for about ten months. These data all seem to point toward a...
Summary Jobless claims continue to impress with the latest reading on seasonally adjusted initial claims dropping to 183K which is the lowest level since April 2022. While NSA claims were lower this week, it was not by much with the reading falling from 225.23K to just 224.36K. As f...
Summary When it comes to the merits of a balanced portfolio, investors may find themselves caught up in the inertia of the masses, with most asset classes suffering negative returns in 2022. While equity and fixed markets have broadly rebounded to start 2023, this does not necessarily m...
Summary January’s US index returns represented a complete inversion of 2022’s performance. International markets also started out the year with a strong rally - outperforming the S&P 500. The yield curve became more inverted in January, signaling potentially reduce...
Summary The statement of the Federal Open Market Committee concerning the recent 25 basis point rise in the Fed's policy rate of interest was received fairly well in the financial markets. Still the main policy thrust by the Fed is the reduction of its securities portfolio through the p...
Summary The dividend outlook for the S&P 500 in 2023 continued to improve. The dividend outlook in 2023 has continued to improve over the last two weeks. The Federal Funds Rate is also currently projected to top out on or by the conclusion of the Fed's March 2023 meeting. ...
Summary When I think about the lessons learned from 2022, I think the biggest lesson is valuations matter. I do think this is the most predicted recession that I've ever seen, certainly, in my career. Investors of all stripes, whether you're an asset allocator or a stock picker, I t...
Summary Too many people still think that the Federal Reserve needs to continue aggressively raising rates. There's no need for aggressive hikes. Surprising the market with larger hikes would be extremely foolish and reduce the Federal Reserve's credibility. The market started ...
Summary The Fed's been tough on interest rates for some time now, and the S&P 500 and most markets haven't reacted well to the hawkish monetary stance. While the S&P 500 and most markets haven't responded well to the hawkish policy, we've seen inflation come down substantially, ...