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2023-04-17 16:14:00 ET Summary Better-than-expected inflation reports during the week and an increasingly likelihood of recession are instead raising the prospect the Federal Funds Rate will reach a peak target range of 5.00-5.25% in May 2023. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool estimat...
2023-04-17 06:05:00 ET Summary The S&P 500 is up +8.27% YTD, while expected S&P 500 EPS growth in 2023 is just +0.6%. 2024 expected S&P 500 sector growth rates are looking at healthier EPS growth than the last few years. Of the last 34 years (through 2022) where the S&...
2023-04-14 14:02:00 ET Summary S&P 500 EPS growth for Q1 2023 is set to come in at -6.8%, the lowest rate in nearly 3 years. Themes from Q1 and for CY 2023: inflation, increasing interest rates, possibility of recession, banking crisis, softening employment. The LERI shows...
2023-04-14 08:00:00 ET Summary Internet companies like Meta and Alphabet are actually considered part of the communication services sector after a GICS reclassification in September 2018. Most communication sector ETFs have actually been outperforming technology ETFs YTD. The ...
2023-04-14 01:00:00 ET Summary Although the worst of the crisis may very well be over, you’re going to see this affect the economy through tighter lending standards. Monetary policy notoriously has long and variable lags. Dividend growers usually outperform during the e...
2023-04-13 01:14:00 ET Summary Back in early-2018, I highlighted a quartet of stocks that had seen a surge in their prices that was far more significant than could be justified by their underlying business trends. That group was McDonald’s, Caterpillar, Boeing, and 3M. As a...
2023-04-13 00:59:00 ET Summary Given market uncertainty and the risk of a US recession, is now the time for defensive stocks? We think that reducing exposure to risk assets while increasing exposure to defensive equities with lower volatility and higher potential dividends may hel...
2023-04-12 09:20:00 ET Summary On 10 March 2023, federal bank regulators shut Silicon Valley Bank. Their action followed a run on its deposits. The failure of Silicon Valley Bank represents the second largest bank failure in U.S. history and was quickly followed by the third large...
2023-04-11 23:46:00 ET Summary SP500 Net Non-Commercial Futures established a new weekly record for the length of time it has averaged (negative) -200 with last week’s number of -321.5, more than 9 months of intense pessimism by this market psychology indicator. Market Psyc...
2023-04-11 14:48:00 ET Summary Q1 is expected to mark the second consecutive quarter of negative y/y earnings growth, which meets the criteria of an earnings recession. Analysts have set the bar lower heading into earnings season by downgrading Q1 estimates. From a guidance pe...