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The SPX should be bottoming out for the next few months. The metals are setting up their own bottoming. The TLT could see one more lower low before a major rally takes hold. For those that have been reading me lately, you would know that I have been taking a lot more tim...
For the past month, gold has been consolidating within a tight range around $1850. The data suggests the next move is most likely up. It’s very possible that the jobs data in two weeks will be weak. This could give the Fed the cover needed to start rolling over, proving that th...
At the beginning of the month, we underestimated how fast agricultural commodities would follow base metals down. Although there are good reasons to buy agriculture ETFs as a hedge against geopolitically induced food inflation, DBA is too underexposed to grain commodities to perform t...
Silver and gold are among the few safer assets to own during stagflationary periods such as today. Historically, silver crashes with stocks but rallies much faster due to associated inflationary monetary stimulus. The ongoing implosion of the Japanese Yen and the Bank of Japan's y...
Historically, the dollar is the antithesis of gold because gold is the anti-dollar. Higher bond yields have been extremely supportive of the dollar, especially relative to the yields in other currencies. While the inverse correlation between Gold and nominal yields is strong, the ...
When the "Speculators" get overly excited, bullish, and long, a price top usually follows as buying momentum for COMEX contracts is nearly exhausted. While it certainly does not appear that there are any fed funds rate cuts planned for the near future, it's helpful to know that the CO...
The Fed raised rates by 0.75% yesterday to 1.50% and plans to continue raising rates to at least 2.5% in the next few months. Quantitative Tightening, or QT, is continuing at its announced pace also. While the Fed’s move was hawkish to say the least, this was all expected, ...
After restocking inventories for two months in March and April, Comex vaults have seen more than a third of the restocking removed in May and June. Silver saw a big move into Eligible last month (8.7M ounces). Part of it was sourced from Registered, which lost 6M. With the Fed on ...
In a base case of inflation moderating without a recession, silver should largely keep up with gold. Gold is an asset that generally performs well in adverse economic and financial conditions. Gold and silver are facing headwinds from higher bond yields and an appreciating U.S. do...
About one-third of this year’s jump in individual income tax receipts results from growth in the economy. Surprisingly, not even the CBO can explain a large portion of the tax revenue surge. The problem is, the CBO does not expect the surge in revenue to last beyond what ca...