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Despite the recent slowdown in debt issuance, the Treasury has added more than $1T in debt during the first 7 months of the year. The Fed hiking cycle has brought the weighted average interest rate up from 1.3% to 1.53%. 23bps may not sound like much, but on a $30.6T balance, that com...
At a net short position of 4,500 contracts, the Large Speculator category is net short for the first time since June 4, 2019. The first stage of the Spec short squeeze has propelled price nearly 10% higher in the past week, but this move is far from finished. There's a massive pil...
Some research related to the US Federal Reserve’s recent rate increases and how gold has previously reacted to rising and falling interest rates. In 2008-09, after the initial rally phase prompted by raising rates from Apr-04 to July-06, gold collapsed as the 2008-09 GFC crisis...
Heading into the FOMC this week, Managed Money was clearly betting on a hawkish Fed pushing gold lower. The long-term bull market continues despite the volatile gyrations of Managed Money positioning. Managed Money has absolutely hammered silver lower while Swap has been on the ot...
Gold mining supply has fallen 7% from 2016 to 2021, while silver is down 8.5%. The cost of mining gold and silver is far below the current level of prices, which should create an incentive for more investment in the sector. There don’t appear to be a lot of new mines coming...
Analysts have been discussing why silver is headed for a breakout, and most investors will miss out on the opportunity if they are not in position ahead of time. When silver prices rise, one of the knock-on effects is that silver mining stocks will outperform the metal itself. While t...
When the Fed hikes by 75bps and precious metals prices rise, it is a clear sign that market participants have more than priced in the impact of tighter monetary policy. Real bond yields should decline over the coming quarters as the Fed is forced to adopt a more dovish stance, which s...
Since Q1 came in at -1.6%, any negative print this Thursday will place the U.S. economy "officially" into recession. Longer-term notes and bonds are rallying with yields falling. The U.S. economy has slipped - or is slipping - into a prolonged period of economic stagflation. ...
Gold fell through the trap door at $1,800 and tested $1,680 last week. Has a bottom been found? Similar to gold, silver fell through several levels of strong support which turns all of those into resistance. Until the miners can gain traction and start powering higher, momentum in...
Looking at dollar delivery volume for July shows that this month is now the largest July ever. Unlike gold, the house accounts are net receivers of metal so far this month and BofA has delivered out a mere 97 total contracts. The Fed knows the economy cannot take much more tighten...