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Equities, bonds, commodities, and currencies all point to slow growth ahead. Mid-cap value and growth stocks lead the way among domestic equities. Biggest changes in developed international sleeve. As we head into the second half of the year, inflation remains one of the...
U.S. equity markets posted solid gains this past week as decent employment data eased concerns over a "hard landing"- for the U.S. economy at least- sparking a bid for risk assets. Recording just its third weekly gain in the past fourteen weeks, the S&P 500 advanced 1.9% on the we...
A basic and very important fact of which hardly anyone is aware is that a general rise in asset prices has nothing to do with economic progress. An important characteristic of monetary inflation is that the new money does not get injected uniformly throughout the economy and therefore...
At the G7 meeting last week, the group agreed on banning Russian gold imports, while working on a mechanism to cap the price of Russian crude oil. Essentially, the G7 is trying to create a “buyer’s cartel” to set a cap on the price of Russian crude oil. After U.S....
The revised long-term outlook projects an annualized return of 4.9%. The current risk premium forecast for GMI suggests that multi-asset-class strategies overall will generate lower returns relative to results posted in recent years. Combining forecasts via several models may prov...
If higher prices, which have now broadened, are allowed to persist, they can become sticky. A wage-price spiral, where rising wages beget rising prices, which cause further pressure on wages, certainly could allow inflation to be a challenge for longer than expected. In general, tradi...
Once the COVID distortions are over the economy will return to its previous state of roughly 2% growth and 2% inflation. Real sales of durable goods surged throughout COVID but accelerated rapidly with stimulus payments; sales peaked right as Biden’s American Rescue Act was imp...
Anchored by the deflationary experiences of the last decade, the Fed waited until headline CPI inflation had hit 7.9% before it finally started tightening monetary policy. This delayed response has permitted inflation expectations to rise and wage growth pressures to increase. Monetar...
Following their best week of the year, U.S. equity markets were again under pressure this week while global benchmark interest rates retreated sharply as recession concerns sparked a bid for bonds. Capping off its worst first-half performance since 1970, the S&P 500 retreated 2.3%...
Back in January, I said inflation had peaked. This morning’s Core PCE data seals the deal for me – it looks like inflation peaked in February. Another big theme of mine in recent years was that the Fed was behind the curve both ways. So, defining inflation as an incr...
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2024-06-24 12:06:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-02 21:20:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-04 23:30:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...