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2023-07-12 21:12:00 ET Summary The yield curve spread that most accurately forecasts recessions is that between the 10-year Treasury bond yield and the 3-month Treasury bill rate. Fed economists and policymakers are also predominantly Keynesian, so they believe in the Phillips Cur...
2023-07-12 03:30:00 ET Summary The high-yield sector offers attractive absolute and relative return prospects due to resilient corporate fundamentals. Consumers and labor market conditions remain on solid footing. Spreads have mostly widened from the end of 2022 through the en...
2023-07-11 10:46:00 ET Summary Stocks have traditionally tumbled when the price of the US 20-year Treasury bond rises, and the gap between stock and Treasury prices today is the largest we have seen in at least 20 years. We can never know when equity markets will recover cycle hig...
2023-07-11 06:35:00 ET Summary Since there is an outspoken minority of doves on the Fed, I think the July FOMC decision will rest on the June inflation reports, especially the Consumer Price Index (CPI). As CPI surged 1.2% in June 2022, I am expecting that its annual pace this mon...
2023-07-10 21:10:00 ET Summary At the beginning of this year, the consensus was that a recession was imminent (within 6 months) so stocks would perform poorly in the first half of the year; bonds were the better choice. The 10-year Treasury yield finally broke above the short-term...
2023-07-10 13:04:00 ET Summary The money management profession believes stocks and bonds have separate levels of risk of decline. The way this is expressed and managed is through a ratio of stocks and bonds, for example 60/40. The purpose of the ratios was to manage risk. Today, t...
2023-07-10 11:30:00 ET Summary Higher expected corporate earnings mask broad pressure under the surface. We see more earnings pain ahead and look for opportunities at the sector level. U.S. Treasury yields surged and stocks dipped last week. Data confirmed the U.S. labor market is...
2023-07-07 08:00:00 ET Summary Inflation is subsiding and this will open the door to looser Fed policy next year. The US economy has proven to be more resilient than we expected, but the threat of recession lingers on due to lagged effects of rate hikes and tighter lending conditi...
2023-07-07 03:40:00 ET Summary Markets are on the upswing after clinching significant gains, locking in a strong six months for the start of the year. Tech was the champion behind the recent rally as a group of eight companies drove performance, fueled by the growth of artificial ...
2023-07-07 03:19:00 ET Summary Growth in government debt has been a key driver of post-pandemic inflation in advanced economies. Monetary policies, while certainly accommodative, appear to have been less of a factor. In response to the pandemic, central banks slashed interest rate...
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2024-07-24 11:34:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-14 13:16:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-13 23:30:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...