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2024-01-29 03:58:00 ET Summary It was a narrow stock market in 2023, in terms of annual returns, with the so-called “Mag 7” leading the way. It’s still an ordinary bull market for the Nasdaq 100, with more room to the upside. The credit markets today seem ...
2024-01-27 01:25:00 ET Summary Higher interest rates have had a significant (i.e., disinflationary) impact on important segments of the economy. Banks are still flush with liquidity. The Fed is not starving the system for liquidity as it did in prior tightening episodes. Durab...
2024-01-26 20:55:00 ET Summary The dovish shift in Fed forecasts in December – with three rate cuts pencilled in for 2024 – incentivised the market to push even more aggressively in pricing cuts. However, they appear to have gone too far too fast for the Fed’s...
2024-01-25 02:30:00 ET Summary While treasury rates, across maturities, jumped dramatically in 2022, their behavior diverged in 2023. The yield curve has been inverted for all of 2023, in all of its variations. If inflation continues its downward path, it is likely that we wil...
2024-01-25 02:18:00 ET Summary There will be a lot of firsts for the economic history books if this business cycle can survive a labor market slowdown, 525 basis points (bps) of rate hikes and an extremely inverted U.S. Treasury yield curve. But the dovish shift from the U.S. Federal ...
2024-01-24 18:15:00 ET Summary Less than two weeks ago, the March 2024 FOMC meeting was widely viewed as the timeline for first cut, with the probability coming in at just about 77%. Post-Fed comments over the last few trading sessions have pushed that probability down to 46%, wit...
2024-01-24 11:29:00 ET Summary Many investors remain overweight cash, but markets have begun to price for a substantial decline in short-term interest rates. The Asset Allocation Committee (“the AAC”) therefore thinks it is time to deploy liquidity, locking in bond y...
2024-01-23 06:30:00 ET Summary Why 2024 won't be the same as 2023 for equity markets. Are bonds getting last year's rally this year? How the U.S. election could impact markets. Whether it be slowing growth, upcoming U.S. elections or numerous geopolitical concerns, t...
2024-01-22 15:40:00 ET Summary The General Business Conditions index fell to -43.7, a depth only exceeded by the -78.2 reading in April of 2020 with the economy shut down for COVID. New orders (-49.4 vs -11.3) and shipments (-31.3 vs -6.4) also posted sharp declines and unfilled o...
2024-01-22 12:50:00 ET Summary Geopolitical fragmentation is accelerating, as seen with recent events in Asia and the Middle East. We see it keeping inflation pressures elevated longer term. U.S. stocks climbed to record highs last week. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose as mar...
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2024-07-24 11:34:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-14 13:16:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-13 23:30:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...