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2024-04-05 08:25:00 ET Summary By January 2025, the Federal Reserve is likely to be in an easing cycle, which may benefit the market regardless of who wins the election. A recent quote from Fed Chair Jerome Powell about the Fed, inflation, and confidence was music to my ears...
2024-04-05 07:05:00 ET Summary Every firm is expecting rate cuts anticipating a recession but there is no recession in sight. Employment has been rising with some believing the numbers are manipulated because they believed the PMI was literally screaming recession. Expectation...
2024-04-04 08:45:00 ET Summary The fundamental outlook for bonds remains questionable at best. The leading indicators of growth and inflation for 2024 suggest both dynamics could put upside pressure on yields. Sentiment toward bonds remains bullish as the consensus is for yiel...
2024-04-03 09:20:00 ET Summary Markets are still pricing in moderate odds that easing will start at the end of the second quarter, but the incoming data is providing more support for again pushing the date for a dovish policy pivot further down the road. The caveat is that the 2-y...
2024-04-03 03:20:00 ET Summary After a sharp decline in yield during Q4 2023, Treasury yields rose during Q1 2024. We experienced significant increases in 10- and 30-year Treasuries, as they rose 31 bps to 4.19% and 30.6 bps to 4.336%, respectively. Spreads on investment-grade...
2024-04-02 14:15:00 ET Summary Yields have surged across fixed income in the new regime. In Q2, we stay nimble and selective, preferring short-term sovereign bonds and high yield credit. The S&P 500 jumped 10% in Q1 even as bond yields rose on markets pricing out rate cuts. In...
2024-04-02 12:20:00 ET Summary Mounting pressures from macro megaforces point toward higher structural inflation and lower real GDP growth in the years ahead. We think higher inflation and slower economic growth will reverberate across the global fixed-income markets, shaping how ...
2024-04-02 07:36:00 ET Summary Markets continue to experience heightened volatility as participants pay close attention to every new economic data point, trying to divine the timing of the first central bank rate cuts. But investors who are overly focused on data surprises may los...
2024-04-02 04:15:00 ET Summary The way the first quarter went, with brief and very shallow pullbacks, one would think that stocks are partying like it is 1995. The rate cutting cycle that began in 1995 had three rate cuts, pretty much what the Fed has planned for 2024. While i...
2024-04-01 22:02:06 ET Summary Different bonds have different characteristics, including credit quality, maturities, duration, and others. Maturities are of particular importance when interest rates are in flux, as they currently are. An analysis and comparison of short-term a...
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2024-07-24 11:34:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-14 13:16:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-13 23:30:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...