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2024-05-28 04:00:00 ET Summary A recent poll conducted by Harris and the UK news outlet The Guardian produced some interesting results. The reporting on this has been mostly political because the poll also found that 58% blame the Biden administration for the current state of the ...
2024-05-27 14:05:00 ET Summary The Q2 ’24 Atlanta GDP Nowcast is projecting mid 3% GDP for the 2nd quarter, 2024. Friday morning, we get Core PCE data for April ’24, and overall April PCE data is expected at +0.2%, while the April Core PCE data is expected at +0.3%. ...
2024-05-24 09:45:00 ET Summary It is widely known that markets can be influenced by economic data releases that deviate significantly from consensus. We have quantified the impact of economic surprises on the US government bond market for different tenors, as measured by the quint...
2024-05-23 00:20:00 ET Summary Two driving forces are now simultaneously pushing in the direction of higher long-term real interest rates. While investors and commentators often tend to conflate the two, I think it is useful instead to distinguish them clearly. They are rising inv...
2024-05-22 13:30:00 ET Summary Fed policy has a heightened data dependency, leading to increased volatility in the bond market. The UST market’s narrative has shifted toward the possibility of rate cuts, but the Fed does not appear to be in a rush to implement them based on...
2024-05-21 11:30:00 ET Summary When the US Treasury yield curve inverts (short rates rise above long rates) the shift is widely viewed as a reliable forecast that a recession is near. The curve has been inverted since July 2022, the longest inversion on record, but a recession has...
2024-05-20 10:50:00 ET Summary Whatever traders and investors were focused on last week, the result was a drop in interest rates across the curve, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping by about 8 basis points. Over the last month, with the 10-year yield down a little over 16 ba...
2024-05-20 02:53:00 ET Summary The US economy grew 3.1% last year, trouncing widespread calls for a recession and exceeding my relatively sober expectation for 2% growth. The correct way to view the interplay between growth and inflation is to first understand that high inflation ...
2024-05-17 01:00:00 ET Summary Following a run of stronger-than-expected inflation prints, S&P Global Market Intelligence analysts now expect an initial rate cut by the Federal Reserve at December's meeting. Forecasts of initial policy rate reductions have been pushed ba...
2024-05-17 00:00:00 ET Summary The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) nonfarm payrolls has averaged monthly gains of over 233k over the past year. By all standards, that is a healthy number, especially considering the federal funds rate has been above 5% over that same time per...
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2024-06-14 13:16:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-05-13 23:30:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-14 13:26:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...