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Since last November’s vaccine news, financial markets have been "hanging ten" on a swell of cyclical, value and small-cap stocks, and rising Treasury yields. Crosswinds started to grow in the second quarter, however, as economic and inflation data ran hot: rising yields stalled...
We’ve moved past the early-cycle environment that predominated risk taking in 2020, post the pandemic lows, and we’re moving really into a mid-cycle environment, which tends to be constructive for risk. This mid-cycle environment is still going to be expansionary, albeit...
Growth-oriented asset classes are likely to shine, but not equally. Above-trend growth is a supportive environment of risky assets like equities or credit. On valuation grounds, equities are looking a little cheaper. Geraldine Sundstrom and Erin Browne discuss PIMCO’s views...
Within the non-investment grade credit markets, issuer default rates are an important driver of market and portfolio performance. We believe 2020 ended the credit cycle that began following the global financial crisis, with 2021 marking the start of a new cycle. The duration of th...
During much of last quarter, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model indicated an annual rate over 10% for the second quarter, but last Friday, they downgraded their estimate to the lowest number we’ve seen since the quarter began - an annual pace of just 7.8%, down from +8.6% on Jul...
Risk-adjusted performance for the Global Market Index (GMI) continued to push higher in June, based on the annualized Sharpe ratio for a rolling ten-year window via monthly data. GMI’s 10-year SR increased to 0.84, the highest in 18 months. GMI is an unmanaged, market-value...
The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) resumed an upward drift in June, rising to an annualized 6.0%. The current risk premium forecast for GMI - 6.0% - suggests that multi-asset-class strategies will generate lower returns relative to results posted in recent yea...
The question is - given the low in March ’09 and the previous highs exceeded in late April ’13 - is the secular bull market 13 years old or just a little over 8 years old, and does it matter? Not only are the S&P 500 and Nasdaq bumping all-time highs, but Europe and ...
Over the past year, a surge of investors drove high-yield bond prices back to pre-pandemic levels. The potential for a double-dip should increase insurance companies’ appetite for juicier high-yield offerings. While high yield improved its lot through the pandemic, some inv...
The Global Market Index’s (GMI) expected risk premium held steady at 5.9% annualized in May, matching the previous month’s estimate. The framework for estimating equilibrium returns was initially outlined in a 1974 paper by Professor Bill Sharpe. Keep in mind, too, t...
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2024-07-18 05:00:37 ET At my CEF Insider service, we’ve been bullish on corporate bonds (especially corporate bond–focused closed-end funds yielding 8%+) for a long time now. We remain so, because we’ve got a nice “goldilocks” setup for these f...
2024-07-15 05:00:18 ET This levitating stock market has brought back worries about a crash (and a recession). I know, I know. We’ve been hearing that doomsday forecast for what feels like forever—and nothing of the sort has come to pass. But a recession will eventu...
2024-07-14 09:52:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...