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Strategas Managing Director and Head of Fixed Income Research Tom Tzitzouris breaks down the recent action in the bond market. He hits on the hotter-than-expected inflation data, the Fed’s actions, and his outlook for interest rates. He also discusses another headwind appro...
The first two weeks in July is the best two-week period of the year historically for stocks. The issue, or the important signal, to note would be if markets did not go higher at the beginning of the quarter. The market passed the first two weeks in July test - barely. The S&P 500 ...
A series of new all-time index highs but no popping of corks. A flight to safety goes on under the surface - a 1.25% yield on the 10-year Treasury July 7, coupled with a "risk-off" 7% drop in the Russell 2K since July 1. Are we headed for an economic slowdown or recession? This qu...
The world economy has performed about as well as could be expected, if one takes as given the pandemic and the inadequate public health response. Global growth in 2020 was negative 3.3 per cent, which is very low historically. But the economic outlook is stronger now than one would ha...
One of the biggest challenges an investor faces right now is what to do with the US stock market. It is expensive, but the US government and the Fed seem willing to do anything to keep the market from crashing. What has previously happened to the US stock market when US inflation ...
The current trailing US EV/EBITDA at 17.2x is very high compared to its 10x average since 1990. This gives most value investors pause, but momentum investors are following this trend. Any investor who believes in the concept of reversion to the mean will be terrified by how clearly ov...
The likelihood of 7% GDP growth (best since 1984) or even 8% (best since 1951) this year is fantastic. But there is increasing evidence that this is a “K”-shaped recovery, with the wealthy reaping stock market and real estate rewards while many small businesses have gone...
What happened last week, as with every other recent market pullback, was another rinse-repeat cycle as wait for it - despite news of the Fed wanting to taper and of more COVID shutdowns early in the week. There are now reports the Fed, due to concerns about COVID may put off the incre...
This market has been like a roller coaster since Memorial Day. The sector rotation has been the biggest churn. The biggest concern at the moment for longer-term investors, and in particular retirees, is the possibility of higher inflation on the horizon. The housing market, the jo...
Strategas President Nicholas Bohnsack breaks down the recent move in Treasury rates before getting into a few 2H21 and 2022 outlook items. While he remains bullish on equities, he says he wouldn’t be surprised to see some volatility on the horizon. The organic growth driver...