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TLT has become very unpopular as investors don't trust a forty-year bull market. Many investors confuse the Fed's overnight lending rate with long-term yields. The U.S. Fed's data for new home prices experienced its first pullback in a long time. For further details see: ...
For investors who want to earn a reasonable return without taking excessive risks, diversification still works, and we think you’re going to need more of it this year. The weighing of the high-flyers is not over. Commodities had another good week, and the 1-year return is getti...
The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index edged down in January from the previous month’s estimate. Using short-term momentum and medium-term mean-reversion market factors to adjust the forecast reduces GMI’s ex-ante risk premium to an annualized 5.4%. Th...
With headlines focused on inflation and the Federal Reserve, rotations between growth and value stocks have become increasingly violent. While skilled market timers may try to get ahead of these moves, a different strategy is to embrace the middle: growth at a reasonable price, known ...
In investing, the big five could more aptly refer to the connected categories of growth, inflation, interest rates, valuations, and style. 2022 is shaping up to be one of slowing toward more normal, healthy rates of economic growth and inflation, thereby paving the way to a sustainabl...
The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index (GMI) ticked lower in November but remains elevated relative to recent history. Adjusting the forecast with short-term momentum and medium-term mean-reversion market factors (defined below) reduces - substantially - GMI’s ex...
We think current cost-push inflation is poised to give way to a healthy, regenerative demand-pull environment, replete with moderate economic growth that is beneficial for the value companies in which we invest. History has shown moderate inflation can be good for value stocks. We con...
The recent run higher in the Sharpe ratio for the Global Market Index finally reversed in October. Risk-adjusted performance has slipped, but GMI's rebound in October lifted it to a new record high. GMI is useful as a baseline to begin research on asset allocation and portfolio de...
Last Thursday, the Commerce Department announced that its preliminary estimate for third-quarter growth was an anemic 2%. This was partly due to the fact that consumer spending grew at only a 1.6% annual pace, down from a torrid 12% annual pace in the second quarter. The Commerce Depa...
The long-run risk premium forecast for the Global Market Index (GMI) rebounded in October, edging up to 6.1%, based on revised numbers through last month. The new estimate is calculated in terms of the projected return over the “risk-free” rate, according to a risk-based...
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2024-07-04 12:08:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-02-23 11:00:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-02-02 00:04:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...