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The first quarter of 2021 brought what the Asset Allocation Committee expected, and as it looks to the next six to 12 months, it faces two questions. Do we think the economy will overheat, pushing bond yields to levels that unsettle equity markets or even force central banks to stifle...
Higher yields have so far left the credit market largely unscathed, but they have changed the balance of opportunity. Against this year's early-cycle background, we anticipate further tailwinds for the lower-rated, more economically sensitive part of the credit market. Right now, ...
The jarring retreat in global bond markets this year has provoked comparisons to the mid-2013 Taper Tantrum, when the Fed hinted at the prospect of scaling back its QE program. While today's upheaval shares many similarities with that earlier event, there are also some notable differe...
One of the interesting things during the period when Treasury yields were rising was that all of the risk assets were compressing against Treasuries. There is virtually no spread in any of the credit indexes that pays the buyer for the credit risk. The spreads are just off historic lo...
For credit markets, the returns just kept coming in 2020 once the Fed stepped in with its strong policy support in late March. With strong returns in the fourth quarter, both investment grade and high yield corporate markets in the U.S. ended the year with positive returns over equiva...
Rising rates are such a problem for gold bullion that gold bullion and major gold stocks are where they were before the COVID pandemic crashed the U.S. stock market at this time last year. In other words, they have wiped out all the pandemic gains. The bid in the dollar is significant...
The recent rise in Treasury yields has spooked the equity markets. This is obvious from the recent performance of the bond markets as compared to the stock markets. Inflation is not the cause of this rise, but rather a combination of the stimulus measures, a rebounding economy, our CO...
Economic growth is returning to almost every country in the world, and almost all commodity prices are rising. The thing to worry about is the direction of fiscal policy, which will almost certainly bring us higher taxes, increased regulatory burdens, and more expensive energy. Fo...
It is my opinion, when considering both the inflation component and the credit risk component, that most bonds are not providing any real value currently. One strategy that should be considered is not buying any more bonds at present. The second is to take a careful look at your portf...
Risk assets have compressed in yield against Treasuries, so that any meaningful yield of anything has gotten wrung out of the markets. For the first time ever, yields in the High Yield markets are now less than 4.00%. In other words, you are getting paid about nothing for credit risk....
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2024-07-04 13:10:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-14 15:48:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-03-05 02:26:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...