U.S. Activity Was Surging Ahead Of Military Action

2026-03-04 13:58:00 ET

By James Knightley, Chief International Economist, US

ISM reports point to 3%+ GDP growth

Markets are obviously nervous about the growth implications of broadly higher energy costs and potential supply issues from the Persian Gulf, but this week’s February ISM reports suggest the US economy was in great shape ahead of the military action. Today's ISM services index for February was far stronger than expected, rising to 56.1 from 53.8 – an outcome that was above every single individual forecast that went into making the consensus prediction of 53.5. Remember that 50 is the break-even level with a figure above 50 signaling growth and below 50 indicating contraction....

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