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Investors that hold bonds to maturity earn the yield at which they purchased the security, and at maturity, they get paid face value. The US government issues its own currency and can always pay for anything with the Fed’s newly created money. Fixed income investors have go...
The primary market has taken center stage after a brief hiatus over the holidays. We typically see January issuance skewed toward financial institutions; and, so far, this year has been no different. On the other hand, we’ve seen moderate outperformance in new issues from U...
Inflation and the pressure that it’s putting on central banks to normalize policy frame the outlook for 2022. Businesses have benefited as economies have re-opened after the first waves of the pandemic. Two sectors — consumer cyclical and integrated energy — h...
The flattening Treasury curve likely has more to do with the market's failure to recognize growing structural inflationary forces. Exceptionally high inflation has turned the U.S. Federal Reserve notably hawkish. Commodity prices continue to climb, with oil touching $90 per barrel...
For investors who want to earn a reasonable return without taking excessive risks, diversification still works, and we think you’re going to need more of it this year. The weighing of the high-flyers is not over. Commodities had another good week, and the 1-year return is getti...
Markets had expected the BoE's bank rate hike, but they were caught a bit off guard by a surprising pivot by the ECB, widely seen as the most dovish of major central banks in wanting to hold off talk of any rate hikes until after 2022. ECB president Christine Lagarde noted that inflat...
The expected risk premium for the Global Market Index edged down in January from the previous month’s estimate. Using short-term momentum and medium-term mean-reversion market factors to adjust the forecast reduces GMI’s ex-ante risk premium to an annualized 5.4%. Th...
Nominal GDP growth is likely to be solid this year, albeit not at 2021’s historic levels. The Fed's policy toolkit should consist of policy rate hikes as well as some reduction in its balance sheet. Equities will be hard-pressed to match last year’s gains. For ...
Last week, the world’s major central banks marched on from the fight with COVID-19 and started maneuvering their troops for the coming battle against inflation. A day after the U.S. Federal Reserve revealed its plans, and a few hours after the European Central Bank declared its...
The EMBI High Yield Index yields 330 bps above the U.S. High Yield Index, which is around two standard deviations relative to the last five years’ average. Apart from China and the frontier markets, there are opportunities in more “traditional” EM countries. I...
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2024-06-14 16:40:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-02-23 12:54:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-02-12 17:50:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...