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Summary Implied volatility levels have surged over the past two days for the S&P 500. This means the equity market could rally due to a mechanical unwind of volatility. However, this is not likely to change the bearish outlook for stocks. The S&P 500 ( SP50...
Summary Although consumers are benefiting from robust labor markets and strong balance sheets, they appear reluctant to buy high-cost durable goods. A key to navigating inflation risk is understanding its relationship with asset class returns. Historically, high-inflation episodes...
Summary The Buffett Indicator is a valuation measure that compares the stock market’s capitalization to the Gross Domestic Product. A favorite of Warren Buffett, the indicator sits shy of 2.44 times market cap to GDP. That number doesn’t mean much on its own, but it&...
Summary The consensus expectation on Tuesday for August CPI was for a 0.1% decline, but the positive +0.1% monthly gain in the CPI shocked Wall Street. This inflation news spooked Treasury bond yields, pushing 10-year yields up from 3.36% on Monday to 3.42% on Tuesday. Now tha...
Summary The financial markets were shocked by the US CPI for August. The evidence continues to accumulate that inflation is now in a downward trend. The monthly chart shows that the numbers remain very high relative to everything over the past twenty years prior to the past fe...
Summary Nobody knows how high interest rates have to rise in order to slow and ultimately reverse the recent rise in inflation. Only excess money causes inflation, and there seems to be a lot less of it recently, which is great news. Supply chain bottlenecks are clearing up ra...
Summary Data can easily mislead, but they can also inform. Although the U.S. began consistently to run annual trade deficits in 1976, the negative impact on employment growth that protectionists predict did not materialize. No data or sets of graphs, regardless of how carefull...
Summary As we start the third week of September, with the US Fed’s much-telegraphed rate hike on Wednesday (+.75 with some 30% betting odds of a full percent!), markets are peaked. To date, Canada’s TSX -13% is just a quarter through the price correction experienced ...
Summary Many pundits believe that the Federal Reserve erred in not withdrawing monetary stimulus fast enough - I'm not one of them. Data proves that energy prices have been the main component of inflation and that's the fault of Saudi Arabia and Russia, not the Fed. Tightening...
Summary After the August inflation report card flunked, the Fed meets this week to further address inflation. Markets expect either a 75 bps or a 100 bps hike. The "Everything Bubble" is rapidly deflating as the Fed pivots to allow markets to clear rather than artificially support...
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2024-07-27 03:38:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-17 11:52:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-17 17:36:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...