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Summary The fed funds rate has move up sharply. Yet, the fed funds rate is still low. The Fed funds rate is far below current inflation marking Fed policy as still stimulative- stimulative - after 300bp of rate hikes - unprecedented. The road ahead may be much bumpier than...
Summary Let's for a moment abandon the pretense that securities pricing has any relationship to earnings, GDP growth, or any other number exogenous to securities themselves. With the blinkers off we can now consider the question of - what the Dickens just happened? We explain ...
Summary The October Preliminary Report came in at 59.8, up 1.2 (2.0%) from the September Final. Consumer sentiment is essentially unchanged at 1.2 index points above September, in spite of a 23% improvement in current buying conditions for durables owing to an easing in supply con...
Summary The September inflation report was hotter than expected. Yet the stock market staged a historic intraday reversal with very bullish precedents. That could be a sign that markets are starting to look forward to better days ahead. Yesterday saw a stunning rever...
Summary Monetary policy is now tight relative to recent decades. The ultimate impact of this is uncertain due to the amount of global debt. Fiscal policy is likely to be at loggerheads with monetary policy as governments try to protect the voter base from hardship. While marke...
Summary The ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard is a group of 12 variables that have historically foreshadowed an upcoming recession. The Fed does not want to repeat the mistakes of not only the soft-landing scenario of 1966, but also the start-stop dynamic that was endured durin...
Summary The core CPI in September came in stronger than consensus expectations across consumer spending categories that tend to be “stickier,” including shelter and healthcare. The primary driver of inflation again in September was shelter. Goods price inflation ...
Summary Every movement of the stock market has been predicated on what the Fed had to say. The most important chart is the high yield credit spread. When credit markets freeze, policy makers bend. For the past six weeks every movement of the stock market has been pre...
Summary AIER’s Everyday Price fell 0.4% in September following a 1.3% drop in August and 0.6% decline in July. The Consumer Price Index, excluding food and energy, rose 0.4% for the month (not seasonally adjusted), while the 12-month change came in at 6.6%, the highest sinc...
Summary Last week’s jobless claims number went unrevised whereas the latest week’s data rose by 9K up to 228K. On a national level, claims are moving higher, but it is perhaps too early to say we are in a new trend. While 80% of states and territories saw claims ...
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2024-07-27 03:38:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-17 11:52:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-17 17:36:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...