Next 10 |
First Scary Fact: Money Supply is growing at an astounding rate. Second Scary Fact: Inflation is Coming. Third Scary Fact: Margin debt is more than double any other time in recent history. For further details see: Three Scary Facts About The Economy
The initial downturn was unusually swift and deep, as was the initial recovery, but the recovery path is reverting to more typical patterns as the expansion has lost momentum. New forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office predict that GDP will return to its pre-pandemic peak by t...
Strong Investments in Equipment and Residential Construction Powered Domestic Investment. Deep Divisions in Domestic Politics Continue to Threaten National Stability. We Foresee a Large Stimulus Before 2021Q2, but we are Concerned Leaders' Have Embraced inflationary Modern Mo...
Global uncertainty reached unprecedented levels at the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak and remains elevated. Economic growth in key systemic economies, like those of the United States and European Union, is a key driver of economic activity in the rest of the world. Only the Un...
Current monetary policy is setting the U.S. up for a period of high inflation and asset bubbles. The Fed is unlikely to raise rates in response to this risk. As a result, being long stocks & commodities and short treasuries still makes sense. For further details see: ...
At first a Biden win was thought to be bad for markets. Then investor sentiment shifted over prospects for a blue wave in November. The most likely outcome is one that few are considering. For further details see: An Outcome Few Are Considering
The current lack of FOMC consensus is a signal of a wider lack of consensus at the Fed on how to implement its new monetary policy framework in detail. These twin consensus deficits have been exposed at the critical time of the US Presidential election. The US economy and the Fed&...
Each and every day the markets are swayed by what the politicians are doing, and what they are likely to do. The participants in the markets stand back, look around, and then place their bets. The easiest response is to have additional cash. Except that cash now yields nothing, an...
The American Association of Individual Investors’ weekly reading on bullish sentiment rose 8.5 percentage points this week to 34.74%. That is the highest level of bullish sentiment since the initial rally off the bear market lows on April 16th when bullish sentiment was only sl...
We now see an earnings driven market, which will benefit active over passive managers and hard research. We recommend focusing on operating margins as corporations have done a great job navigating through the pandemic. The pace of the economic recovery in 2021 still rests on how w...