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NEW YORK (July 3) - Gross Domestic Product for the Second Quarter of 2020, or "2020Q2 GDP", declined a record 32.9%, slightly above the consensus estimate of a 34.1% decline. It came in 90 bps above the lower end of our estimated range of decline of 25% to 35%, as set forth in our June ...
Obviously, the most important news this week was the Fed's policy announcement, which said the Fed would keep rates at 25 basis points. Let's parse some of the release (emphasis added) : The coronavirus outbreak is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States...
On Wednesday (7/29/2020), the Federal Reserve left its overnight lending rate at the zero-bound range of 0.00%-0.25%. The Fed also reasserted its commitment to a wide array of lending and asset purchasing programs via digital money printing. No surprises there. There was, however, a bit...
Some say never bring up politics. Looking ahead to August on Wall Street, though, it’s hard to avoid. Entering the month, the big question is whether Congress and the White House can get together on a new stimulus package as parts of the old one vanish. It seems likely the market woul...
In H1 2020, many have been surprised by U.S. markets holding up in a recession with the Nasdaq up year-to-date and the S&P 500 around flat. A key reason is significant and fast stimulus. This has led to the bizarre situation where personal incomes have risen in a recession. On June data...
If you've been paying attention, you might have noticed the stock market has entered some exciting new territory during the global coronavirus pandemic. To understand how exciting, let's revisit some basic concepts for what defines order, disorder, disruptive events, and bubbles as they appl...
Why only half a "V?" If the latest PMIs are anywhere close to accurate, and they don't have to be all that close, then the production side of the economy may have stalled out somewhere nearer the trough of this contraction. The promise of May's big payroll report surprise has dissipated in...
The U.S. Federal Reserve keeps its key interest rate on hold, which was widely expected. But the Fed stated that the path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus. Anthony Okolie speaks with James Marple, Senior Economist, TD Bank, about the outlook for rates an...
The essential macroeconomic problem There's an entire school of economics based upon the idea that we can't actually know, in detail, what's happening out there. The economy is simply too complex for us to ever be able to gain accurate and timely information about it. Hayek gained his Nobel ...
Bearish betting continues to pile up, suggesting investors see stocks falling further over the next few weeks. Based on the current valuation, it seems plausible this could happen. Since the beginning of July , I have been tracking bearish options betting in the Nasdaq 100 ETF ( QQQ ) and t...