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As we await Friday's jobs report, let's take a look at where we are so far in the employment recovery, starting with macro-level employment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics: Click for a larger image. In April, the economy lost 20,787,000 jobs. 47% were in two areas: retail (which...
Good morning. To review, we have made a change to the presentation of our market models and my oftentimes meandering morning market missives. The goal is to create a series of more concise, bite-sized reports, which will be published on a daily basis. Below is the weekly publishing schedule: ...
There is certainly a role for regulation, but regulation should always take into account the impact that it has on markets, a balance that must be constantly weighed. − Jerome Powell Both the Fed and COVID-19 are in a "whatever-it-takes" mode. The virus is doing whatever it takes to...
It's the end of the pandemic lockdown. Maybe not for everyone but, sadly, for us it is. Our oldest, my daughter, is headed back to school next Saturday. So, sadly, the pandemic lockdown is over. I have to say I don't know what to tell her. Can she come back home between now and Thanksgiving? Y...
There are two components of quarterly GDP that are long leading indicators, giving us information about the economy 12 months from now. If you think, as I do, that it is likely there will be a new Administration in Washington next year, which will competently follow the science, then there i...
Thursday and Friday saw several significant data releases. Let’s catch up. Wages The Employment Cost Index was released for Q2 Friday morning. This is a particularly important release because unlike the monthly “average hourly wages” number, this report nor...
Investors should always keep in mind that the most important metric is not the returns achieved but the returns weighed against the risks incurred. - Seth Klarman The last seven months have featured wild market swings in both directions. At the start of 2020 investors were willing ...
"If everybody indexed, the only word you could use is chaos, catastrophe… The markets would fail." - John Bogle, May 2017 (Source: Author's Photo) Introduction Earlier in 2018, Jeremy Grantham laid out a path for a classic bubble in the S&P 500 Index ( SP500 ) which he act...
Stocks Hug The Bullish Trend As discussed previously in "The Cobra Effect," we noted the market remained confined to its consolidation channel. "Unfortunately, the market failed to hold its breakout, which keeps it within the defined trading range. The market did hold its rising bull...
The dollar was beaten up in July. It fell against nearly all the world's currencies except for a handful of emerging market currencies, including the Argentine peso and Turkish lira. It did not just fall against the major currencies, but it fell hard. The euro's 5.0% gain in July was its bes...