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Strong, but fragile The S&P 500 Index is seemingly unstoppable. What global depression, right? The benchmark index closed at yet another new all-time high on Tuesday and is now +4% above the pre-COVID-19 peak on February 19. Despite this relentless strength, the rally in stocks is look...
Data Source: Bloomberg The (U.S.) Market Splits Its Pants Source: istockphoto.com What had appeared to be a calmer market environment earlier in the month turned into an outright frenzy as retail investors bid up large cap technology stocks following stock split announcements from ...
During the past couple of months, I discussed why the 35% decline in March was only a " correction" and not a " bear market." Technically speaking, margin debt also confirms the bull market remains intact. However, therein also lies the risk of the next correction. As noted previously in "...
My favorite month (August) is almost over and changes of autumn are already in the air. I hope each of you is having a wonderful summer! Current Market Conditions I will keep this month's update relatively brief, as not much has changed from an economic/investment perspective since the end...
August was another risk-on month. Except for investment-grade bonds in the US and foreign-government fixed income in developed markets, across-the-board gains dominated the major asset classes higher last month. The gains fell short of the full sweep of July's advances, but there was nothi...
Political Calculations' initial estimate of median household income in July 2020 is $65,672 , a decrease of 0.2% from June 2020's initial estimate of $65,778. The change reflects a continuation of the downturn in wage and salary income that resulted from the combined economic effects of the...
The most striking similarity between the 1920s and 1990s bull markets is the notion that traditional measures of stock valuation had become obsolete. - Edward Chancellor, Devil Take The Hindmost You know it's a bubble when you have to edit the Y axis on all of your charts because valuati...
When the battlefield is quiet, expect to be attacked, is a lesson from the US Marine Corps. For bullish equity investors, the low volume of August trading should signal a need to expect change. The most dangerous short-term change is one spurred on by emotions, rapidly bringing into action hol...
By Kevin Flanagan While Powell & Co. didn't necessarily telegraph the Jackson Hole announcement regarding the Federal Reserve's (Fed) new policy framework, enough hints seemed to have been laid out of late suggesting this outcome should not be surprising. Nevertheless, I've watched the...
Executive Summary: After the best return for the month of August since 1984 (+7.0% for S&P 500 index and +7.19% with dividends reinvested) it appears that the trend is indeed an investors best friend here. And while it's been a little bumpy, the venerable chip index sports a gain of +8...