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“Drunkenness is not romantic; it's a form of temporary insanity. And hangovers are the body's way of asking, 'What were you thinking?” ― Susan J. Anderson It has taken a while but even the hardcore skeptics now realize it wasn't a summer season where we “Sell ...
On Aug. 27, the Fed announced a new inflation targeting regime: On price stability, t he FOMC adjusted its strategy for achieving its longer-run inflation goal of 2 percent by noting that it "seeks to achieve inflation that averages 2 percent over time." To this end, the revised statem...
By Robert Hughes U.S. nonfarm payrolls posted a fourth monthly gain in August, adding 1.4 million jobs following a 1.7 million rise in July, a 4.8 million surge in June, and a 2.7 million gain in May. However, the four-month total gain of 10.6 million is far from offsetting the 22.2 millio...
On a special, blog-only edition of Market Week in Review, Mark Eibel, director, client investment strategies, and Research Analyst Laura Bardewyck discussed recent economic data releases, the current market selloff and the potential influence of U.S. election season on markets. Key takeaway...
By Jill Mislinski Official recession calls are the responsibility of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee, which is understandably vague about the specific indicators on which they base their decisions. This committee statement is about as close as they get to identifying their metho...
The stock market has moved a lot since March, up and down. On Friday, the US stock markets took a market sell-off into a second day with substantial movements on both days. But this is not just a recent thing. Since March, the volatility of the stock market has ramped up from what was taking p...
Other observers and I have written about the "September Effect," which is the history of disappointing returns on US stocks in the month of September. We've just come through two of the better months - July and August - with good results, and now September has disappointed so far. Consequently...
NEW YORK (September 4th) - The August jobs report printed up 1,371,000 new jobs, slightly below the consensus estimate of 1,400,000 jobs. Revisions for June (-10,000) and July (-29,000) netted 39,000 fewer jobs. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate ticked down 180 bps to 8.4% ...
Purpose I look at the high frequency weekly indicators because while they can be very noisy, they provide a good nowcast of the economy and will telegraph the maintenance or change in the economy well before monthly or quarterly data is available. They are also an excellent way to "mark yo...
Before we get to the state of the market fundamentals, I figure it is probably a good idea to address the current violent selloff happening in the stock market. The fact that the market suddenly fell, without notice, and on no news, should not come as ANY surprise to readers of this oftentim...