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The record decline in US output in the second quarter is expected to post a strong but partial recovery in the upcoming Q3 GDP report, according to several recent nowcasts compiled by CapitalSpectator.com. Economic activity is projected to rise nearly 21% in real terms on an annualized basis...
The volume of goods and services traded between the U.S. and China during July 2020 rose over their June 2020 levels as the economic recovery from the coronavirus recession continued. The combined value of trade between the two countries increased by $2.8 billion to $49.7 billion in July 202...
(Source: Bloomberg ) The first American stock market index, the Dow Jones Transportation Average ( DJT ), was constructed in 1884, predating the now widely cited Dow Jones Industrial Average ( DJI ), constructed in 1896. The indices construction was premised upon increased market visibi...
Low rates won't push markets higher. This concept that low interest rates will support higher PE multiples is merely false. History has shown that low rates do not lead to higher PE multiples, and that means the notion that this low-interest environment will support elevated multiples won't la...
More and more evidence is surfacing that relates to the break in the relationship between money and inflation . Nobel prize-winning economist Milton Friedman stated in the 1960s the inflation was everywhere and at every time a monetary phenomenon. In recent years we have observed, more an...
Today’s DOL Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims shows no improvement in the insured employment situation. The non-seasonal adjusted initial claims at 857,148 are up by 20,140 when compared to the previous week. Also, the non-seasonal adjusted continuous insured unemployed at 13,197...
Of all of the variables that move the markets, of all of the politics, trade tensions, and new technologies that push the our investments, there is one that is going to be a constant for years, and that is interest rates. I have been around long enough to witness high yields and bond vigilante...
In my last post, August 30th, I noted signs of a possible stall in the economy (TSA throughput, very low real yields, high levels of uncertainty). Since then, there are a number of indicators which show continued improvement and even some surprising strength. Chart #1 Chart #1 shows an ind...
Equity markets sell off following a big reversal in major tech stocks last week. Anthony Okolie talks with Michael Craig, Head of Asset Allocation, TD Asset Management about whether this is an overdue pullback, or could signal the end of the rally. Transcript - Michael, the market i...
By Robert Eisenbeis, Ph.D. In most data releases during the pandemic, it is possible to find some things that are positive and some that are negative, and the extent to which one thing is emphasized over another tends to be influenced in today's world by politics. The new CES jobs report r...