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Several GDP nowcasts for the upcoming Q3 report (due on Oct. 29 from the Bureau of Economic Analysis) are pointing to a strong rise. After plunging in March and April, the US MEI rebounded sharply but has been treading water in recent weeks. The standard numbers still leave plenty...
U.S. stock and corporate bond markets performed extraordinarily well from the March financial shock caused by COVID-19 to the end of last month. Then, three consecutive weeks of decline in the three major stock market indexes have been followed this week by a global slump attributed t...
The Congressional Budget Office is making some projections that are breath-taking when it comes to the growth of the federal debt, but also how slow the economy is to grow. The CBO projects economic growth will average only 1.6 percent over the next thirty years and the federal debt i...
Tick Index patterns can be useful for analyzing how securities are trading and when to buy on the dip. We are approaching an inflection point in fossil fuels as oil stocks fall out of favor and trends turn toward sustainable energy and ESG investing. Oil may be beaten down now, bu...
We are on track for the worst September since 2002, when the market sank 11% for the month. Don't underestimate the dip-buyers. Mostly retail types, they have been in control of this market since March 23. Today's action marks the beginning of the weighing machine market. Fo...
The death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Ginsberg has sparked a replay of the 2016 passing of Justice Scalia. The Federal Reserve is trying to plug a hole that fiscal policy was widely expected to fill by now. The pickup in volatility over the last couple of years is more akin to a...
The Dow and S&P 500 recently broke below key support. Fresh worries are causing the bears to color outside the lines. The action in the near-term could tell us a lot about where we go from here from an intermediate-term basis. For further details see: Coloring Outsid...
In this article I will walk you through the commonly used but wrong way to think about volatility decay. We'll then walk through an example of volatility decay with realistic numbers. Afterwards, we'll build a simple mathematical model to calculate volatility decay from first prin...
The U.S. economy added 1.5 million jobs in August. The unemployment rate was 8.4 percent, an improvement over July. Q2 GDP fell over 30 percent. Economic activity could remain depressed until the economy fully reopens. Low interest rates should buoy financial markets and real esta...
A new wave of policy proposals is gaining steam, centered around the idea that the US can use unlimited amounts of debt (or money printing) without consequence. Currently, the US does not "print" spendable dollars. The increase in debt, however, has been having measurable consequences...