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The outlook is turning grim for the US economy, or so a range of soft data and forecasts advise. Sentiment is a factor in economics, and on that front, there are increasing signs of mood swing to the downside. A lot can go wrong for the economy in the months ahead, but it’s...
Aside from the Bank of Japan, major central banks are in a hurry to tighten financial conditions even as a cyclical slowdown weakens demand. The Bank of England hiked its base rate by 25 bp, but increased its inflation projection and warned of more forceful action if necessary. Th...
The FOMC hiked rates 75 bps Wednesday, the largest rate boost since Greenspan’s lone 75 bps move more than 27 years ago (November 1994). For anything bigger, it’s back to the Volcker era. The 1994 tightening cycle and attendant acute bond/derivatives market upheaval fund...
After months of fretting about soaring inflation, markets are now fully in recession-fear mode. Yield curves are flattening, credit spreads are widening, and equities are slumping - traditional recession alerts. Meanwhile, captains of industry and finance are warning of impending ...
The World Bank downgraded its 2022 global growth estimate to 2.9%—the bank originally forecasted a 4.1% increase back in January. The ECB announced that it will raise interest rates next month for the first time in more than a decade. Domestic equity funds this last week re...
Investors need to start ratcheting down earnings expectations and what the market is willing to pay for them. The policy errors cited in 2021 are now on full display, and an "Inflationary Recession" looms. An ongoing anti-business climate will continue to have negative ramificatio...
The forward estimate jumped to $236.06 from last week’s $235.61. The forward estimate started the year at $223, but it’s been hovering around $233 – $236 since April 15th, 2022. There is still little signs of weakness either in the forward or current S&P 500 e...
High frequency indicators can give us a nearly up-to-the-moment view of the economy. The metrics are divided into long leading, short leading, and coincident indicators. There were more downgrades in several time frames this week. In particular, a number of short leading indic...
This past week felt like a big moment for central banks, collectively, as well as financial markets more broadly. There are still those like the BoE that still believe that slow and steady will win the race, or the BoJ that doesn’t actually have an inflation problem, but rather...
Unemployment claims are rising as tech firms shed workers. 81.5% of all stocks are now in a bear market, with the median stock down by -32.1%. Unemployment would rise, corporate earnings would fall, and the stock market would take another hit. For further details see: Th...
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2024-06-14 19:20:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-24 17:42:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-14 19:44:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...