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Summary The forward 12-month EPS is a time-weighted average between FY1 (2023) and FY2 (2024). During the height of the pandemic, we saw aggressive downgrades in EPS estimates during March-June 2020 as shown in the 2020, 2021 , and 2022 worm. Both the Russell 1000 and Russell 1000 G...
Summary One hypothesis we're currently evaluating behind the scenes is that the multiplier may have shifted to zero at the beginning of the year. Unlike changes in dividend expectations that are easy to identify, the factors that cause the dividend futures-based model's basic multiplier...
Summary Economic news has caused market participants to be looking the wrong way over these last 5 months. While news reports can act as a catalyst for market moves, the substance of the news is often unimportant in determining a directional bias. As long as highlighted support hold...
Summary The 5-year Treasury yield jumped 27 bps last week, from 3.66% the prior week to close, to 3.93% at this Friday’s close. This is after falling 30 bps in the first week of January ’23. The “estimated” S&P 500 earnings growth for 2023 (as a whole) ha...
Summary Instead of bullish investors sticking with their mantra of 'Don’t Fight The Fed,' it is now a standoff between bullish investors and the Fed. While bullish investors cling to historical statistics about market returns, the problem is the Fed remains clear that it will not...
Summary From its all-time high of 4,973, the S&P 500 has now fallen 23% (as at January 1st), so the US large-cap index is still in a bear market. Over the last 100 years, the S&P 500’s CAPE has almost never gone outside the range of half to double its long-term average. ...
Summary This month, the Bureau of Labor announced significant revisions and is why tracking the trend is more valuable for economic insight than any single report. The tone in the media is shifting from extreme pessimism to “my god, it’s far better than we thought”....
Summary One of the key assumptions behind commodity markets is that it is economic demand that drives pricing. It has been long-conflated that sentiment drives economic activity and that certain correlated indicators are believed to be economic measures and good predictors of future eco...
Summary S&P 500 blended EPS growth for Q4 continues to fall, now expected to come in at -5.3%. Peak earnings season rolls on this week with 1,447 global companies expected to report. Potential surprises this week: PYPL, HLT. Another week, another tick down for Q4 S&...
Summary The trajectory of the S&P 500 shifted downward to close the week at 4,136.48, still up from the previous week's close. The week also saw continued improvement in the expectations for the S&P 500's quarterly dividends per share during 2023. The FedWatch tool anticipat...
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2024-07-24 17:42:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-07-14 15:20:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-06-11 20:00:00 ET Seasoned stock investors mitigate market risks by diversifying. Instead of investing in one company, you buy shares of companies from different sectors. Some investors take a less cumbersome route and simplify the selection process by investing in exchange-traded ...