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One of the strangest weeks in the history of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities ended Thursday with a beautiful result for investors: The Treasury's reopening auction of a 10-year TIPS got a real yield to maturity of 0.680%, much higher than looked likely just days ago. This is CUSIP ...
Michael Darda sent me a scary graph showing 10-year TIPS spreads (white line) and the (real) yield on 10-year TIPS (yellow line): Notice the recent sharp increase in real interest rates in the US. This is exactly what happened in late 2008. Indeed almost everything that's happened recently i...
Overview Through the great inflation period of the late 1970s and for about thirty years prior all bonds taken broadly as an asset class were widely considered to be “certificates of confiscation” The portfolio losses were persistent and seemingly endless. But near the end ...
The U.S. stock and bond markets are covered in fog this morning. Investors are up in the air and it's not safe for landing. There's my metaphor for our current condition, when even mundane and safe investments like Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities ((TIPS)) can take wild swings in just...
Investors in the [[TIP]] ETF - an index fund that holds the full range of Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities - got a big surprise this week: a stunning 6.2% drop in value amid a what appeared major "safe haven" Treasury rally. Investors value TIPS for their safety. They are a Treasury s...
By Paul Wong The U.S. Federal Reserve (the "Fed") made a surprise interest rate cut of 50 basis points on Tuesday, March 3, and gold bullion closed the week higher, above $1,670. This follows gold's February breakout from the critical $1,585/$1,600 overhead resistance range that we have hi...
Yes, I know that that is CPI inflation, and the PCE inflation rate (1.74%) has undershot the Fed's 2.0% over the past 4 years. That's not my point. Rather, I'd like to revisit some criticism I got in the comment section over the past 4 years, when I began to argue that TIPS spreads seemed sl...
The U.S. Treasury will offer $14 billion in a new 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security at auction Thursday. This is CUSIP 912828Z37 , and the coupon rate and real yield to maturity will be determined by the auction. I'm not likely to be a buyer, even though 10-year issues are the "...
While many financial "experts" have been declaring U.S. inflation dead for years, it surged back to life in 2019 - rising 2.3%, the highest number since 2011. While 2.3% isn't scary-high, it is on the high end of moderate inflation. The official number for U.S. inflation is the Consumer Pric...
What do you expect to be the key driver of stock market performance over the course of 2020? I believe the world debt crisis will finally "break the bank" in the foreseeable future. It's amazing that per capita world debt has surged above $200,000 (I wrote about this in SA last year). Worl...
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2024-07-24 17:48:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-07-14 15:26:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...
2024-04-14 19:58:00 ET Stock Traders Daily has produced this trading report using a proprietary method. This methodology seeks to optimize the entry and exit levels to maximize results and limit risk, and it is also applied to Index options, ETFs, and futures for our subscribers. This...