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2023-05-16 13:23:49 ET Summary Jay Powell is scheduled to speak on Friday morning. He's likely to enforce his new data-dependent approach. Additionally, he's likely to signal no rate cuts in 2023. Given the narrow trading range observed in the past few days, the mark...
2023-05-12 01:05:00 ET Summary The Federal Government ran a surplus last month as it typically does in April due to the tax deadline. Compared to 2019, the surplus has only increased 10% while total spending has increased 23%. Looking at the TTM shows that the deficit represen...
2023-05-10 14:01:53 ET Summary The CPI report came in as expected, and offered no surprises. Additionally, there was that post-data release rally as event risk was removed. The inflation data offer no clear signs that Fed will be cutting rates anytime soon. The CPI repor...
2023-05-10 09:53:46 ET Summary The disinflationary trend continues with a broad decline in the rate of increase for the CPI components. We're on track for the Fed's 2% target with a big decline in shelter and transportation costs. This report should end the Fed's rate hike cyc...
2023-05-10 09:43:00 ET Summary After falling to the lowest level seen since the coronavirus pandemic in the previous month, the combined value of goods increased from $42.2 billion to $45.0 billion. The biggest categories affected were consumer electronics (mobile phones, televisi...
2023-05-10 06:00:00 ET Summary The rate pause is near. Equities can outperform or underperform following rate pauses, depending on the condition of the economy. Probabilities favor bonds in the near term and equities in the long term, in our opinion. With the Federal...
2023-05-10 03:10:00 ET Summary Earnings season has been better than feared, but all eyes are on how the current quarter progresses and emerging risks to corporate profits. We spotlight a pair of troubled financial institutions with unusual earnings events. AT&T, meanwhile,...
2023-05-10 01:59:00 ET Summary I think that the Fed had to take the olive branch that the market was extending to it with fully pricing in this rate hike. The First Republic going into receivership and having the merger there - I think from that vantage point, it was a win-win-win...
2023-05-10 01:05:00 ET Summary Economists have been forecasting a recession would happen since the Federal Reserve (Fed) started raising interest rates back in March 2022. The federal funds rate has risen almost 500 basis points since last year, as the Fed has aggressively attacke...
2023-05-09 20:45:00 ET Summary Why a policy shift may come sooner than expected from the Fed. Was the latest rate hike by the Fed Reserve a policy mistake? The Fed could be about to make a policy move on bond purchases, and what it means for markets. Concerns...