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2023-03-15 17:52:51 ET Summary The latest CPI release contains conflicting data, which can be used to support a belief in either high inflation or low inflation. Inflation has not yet fully normalized, but it also hasn't been a large problem for months. Softer labor markets, a...
2023-03-15 14:23:23 ET Summary Treasuries rates are falling in a race to unwind short positions. The S&P 500 is overvalued and offers no earnings growth. The equity market may need to force the Fed pivot. The bull narrative is over, and now the market must convin...
2023-03-15 11:30:00 ET Summary All over the world, people are moving cash out of low-yielding bank accounts and into higher-yielding deposits. Shareholder equity and retained earnings (tier-one capital) are the primary funding source for banks. Losses in the sector manifest in...
2023-03-14 10:33:00 ET Summary With the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, questions of potential “bank runs” spread among regional banks. While higher rates increase consumer borrowing costs, they also negatively impact bank capital. While the economy seems to be ...
2023-03-14 10:10:21 ET Summary The regional bank fiasco has tightened financial conditions overnight. That is doing the Fed's job for it, which means we may be close to the terminal Fed Funds rate. This will allow the Fed to pause while it evaluates the impact of the rate hike...
2023-03-14 06:55:00 ET Summary SVB reverberations continue. In the US, the FRA/OIS spread is at a tipping point and needs to calm to help generate wider calm. US financial conditions have tightened considerably as a consequence of all of this. This does a job for the Fed, but ...
2023-03-14 06:20:00 ET Summary Recession indicators are concerning. Bank runs are particularly concerning. Certain companies may outperform in a recession. As negative economic and financial news piles up, there are increasing concerns about a potential upcoming rece...
2023-03-14 04:53:00 ET Summary Last Friday, the Labor Department revised both their December and January payroll reports by a total of 34,000 jobs, from 260,000 down to 239,000 in December, and from 517,000 down to 504,000 in January. So far, the Fed has been remarkably quiet abou...
2023-03-14 02:45:00 ET Summary We went from a complete re-pricing of further Fed rate hikes to a setting where safe-haven buying due to concerns surrounding the banking sector took center stage in Treasuries. Obviously, the headlines, and attendant money and bond market reactions,...
2023-03-14 00:51:00 ET Summary The Federal Government ran a deficit of -$262B in February. February is typically the biggest deficit month of the year, averaging a deficit of $208B per year for the decade before Covid. Looking at the TTM, the deficit represented 25% of the tot...