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2023-03-18 08:30:00 ET Summary The Fed began raising interest rates one year ago, on March 17, 2022, and the U.S. economy is not in recession. Milton Friedman famously found that the time lags are long and variable. The factors delaying recession will not prevent it, and it...
2023-03-18 08:21:00 ET Summary Could the consensus view of a 'no recession' scenario be wrong? As portfolio managers, this is the question we ask ourselves daily. What happened with SVB is a result of tighter monetary policy extracting liquidity from the banking system. While ...
2023-03-18 02:48:12 ET Summary Investors will need to tweak portfolios as the New Era investment theme unfolds. Unprecedented government spending followed by unprecedented rate increases have left the investment scene in turmoil. Unless there is a decided change in fiscal poli...
2023-03-18 02:25:00 ET Summary Fed expectations are all over the place with Nomura analysts calling for a rate cut, while most investors are between a hold or a final quarter-point rate rise. It goes without saying that the focus in Europe next week will be firmly on the banking s...
2023-03-18 00:30:00 ET Summary After disrupting the trend of lower readings last week, this week’s reading on initial jobless claims returned to improvements as the print totaled 192K. Before seasonal adjustment, claims are sitting at 217.4K. Not only were initial claim...
2023-03-17 18:44:00 ET Summary Fighting high inflation is tough enough, but Fed has been trying to tame pricing pressure when the economy is showing signs of weakening, at least in some corners. The central bank normally eases monetary policy and cuts interest rates when economic ...
2023-03-17 09:00:00 ET Summary The current banking debacle has gotten many people nervous, and rightfully so. The issues which have come to light have now caused millions to go from the frying pan into the fire. It is time for you to take finding a safe bank seriously. ...
2023-03-17 05:19:59 ET Summary Employment data, a lagging indicator, shows a robust employment picture. Regional Business Indicators reveal a rapidly slowing economy. Single-family housing in the doldrums, making it very hard for the economy to grow. Slowing Economic...
2023-03-17 04:45:00 ET Summary Before this week, many had been surprised by the lack of financial stress arising from this tightening cycle, given its speed and size. Many view SVB's failure as the first sign of systemic risk arising from the Fed’s monetary tightening. ...
2023-03-17 03:58:25 ET Summary We were seeing warning signs in Financials long before the current regional banking crisis. On February 22nd, we even posted a public warning about this sector flashing warning signals. When you add up the prior 3-month (inflationary) readings and an...